49ers-Cowboys Game Preview: More Possession

The 49ers and Cowboys used to meet to determine who would be the NFL champion that year. This year it's all about survival as the Niners are the 5.5-point favorites in tonight's primetime game.

Dallas brings its least talented team in years with All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland and its top five pass rushers, including Micah Parsons, sidelined by injury. The Niners are without Jauan Jennings and Jake Moody, while Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are out.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

The game plan is simple. Run.

The Dallas defense is a donut, it has a hole in the middle. The Cowboys rank last in EPA per run game allowed and 30th in run success rate against. They can't stop the run, and that's important for the Niners, even in the red zone.

Jordan Mason should have a field day as the Niners will look to score touchdowns instead of field goals on red zone drives. That should put the Niners up to over 30 points, assuming they can protect the ball.

For Brock Purdy, Dallas misses his pass rush, he should have the time to find receivers. The Cowboys will be forced to blitz to create pressure and make up for the lack of defensive linemen. It's up to Purdy and Kyle Shanahan to take advantage.

Dallas ranks second in pressure rate at 30.2% but 21st in sacks. They are in 9th place in the blitz competition.

Key match

Brock Purdy against the Dallas back seven

Purdy dodging the blitz and making Dallas pay can be the key to 49ers drives in this game.

The Niners will be helped by Samuel's return, and Kittle could have another productive primetime game. One eye will be on rookies Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing to see what they can do, as well as running back Isaac Guerendo. The Niners will be prepared for explosive plays in this game.

For once, the red zone is the resistance to the moving object, allowing the Niners to put more points on the board than usual.

DALLAS IN BREACH

Dallas' running game is weak and they rely on the passing game, led by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys are 10th in the league in third down conversion rate. The Niners need to double Lamb and force Dallas to beat them with other weapons.

Prescott scored 8 touchdowns and 6 picks in six games and was sacked 16 times. The Dallas offensive line is strong in the middle and vulnerable on the perimeter, giving Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd the opportunity to get home or force Prescott to make mistakes.

It will be interesting to see if Dallas adopts Andy Reid's game plan and uses screens and 12-man (double tight end sets) against the Niners' defense.

Key match

Dak Prescott against the 49ers secondary

The Niners have substituted Prescott frequently in past meetings. If the defensive line brings some heat from the outside, they could create another “Dak's gonna Dak” game.

The Niners' special teams take a break as the return game in Dallas is one of the worst in the league.

NFC PLAYOFFS

If the playoffs were today, the Niners wouldn't make it. They need to win the next three games in a row to give themselves a solid chance of winning the division. A wild card spot is unlikely at this point, so winning the NFC West is of utmost importance.

A win and the Niners are in the hunt, a loss would be DEFCON 1. The 49ers need a win before the bye. Dallas has been living with a 47-9 win over Detroit in its head for two weeks. They will be eager to play but lack the talent to win.

PREDICTION (3-4)

With Dallas' inability to stop the run and get stops in the red zone, the Niners have the perfect opponent to compensate for weaknesses. If the 49ers protect the ball, they shouldn't have a problem in this game.

49ers 31 Dallas 17