5 crucial events to watch in the 2024 BC election

British Columbia voters are going to the polls, and political podcast co-host Mike McDonald says he's watching five elections as a bellwether.

Here are the five election races he sees as indicators of whether the NDP or BC Conservatives will form government and why:

Nanaimo-Lantzville

McDonald says one of the key factors in determining the frontrunners is the history of center-right support in places that flipped to the NDP in 2020.

Nanaimo-Lantzville is a new riding consisting largely of Nanaimo and Parksville-Qualicum, both of which went to the NDP in 2020.

McDonald says Parksville-Qualicum in particular was held by the BC Liberals since 1996 until Adam Walker won for the NDP in 2020. But Walker has since been removed from the NDP caucus and is running for re-election as an independent.

Meanwhile, the BC Conservatives field Gwen O'Mahony, another former NDP MLA who represented Chilliwack-Hope from 2012 to 2013.

North Vancouver Seymour

This Metro Vancouver race was part of Liberal British Columbia territory from 1991 to 2020, when Susie Chant became the first New Democrat to win there since 1972.

McDonald says that while the BC Liberals had the edge for decades, the center-right victory margin decreased from 32 percentage points in 2009 before eventually shifting to the NDP.

He says the heavily urban riding “doesn't fit well with the British Columbia Conservatives and their rural focus,” but it could still be a positive development if the impetus for change reaches Metro Vancouver.

Surrey Cloverdale

This is a rare situation where two sitting MLAs are vying for a spot in the next legislative session.

NDP incumbent Mike Starchuk won the 2020 ballot with 52 per cent of the vote, but previously was a fixture of the BC Liberals until 1991, when the ballot was created.

Starchuk faces one of the BC Conservatives' most high-profile candidates: Surrey South MLA Elenore Sturko, who won the race as a star candidate for BC United. But this year she switched to the Conservatives to run in Surrey-Cloverdale.

McDonald says this may be the front line between BC's Conservative support in the Fraser Valley and the NDP's base in urban areas, the so-called “orange wall.”

Langley Willowbrook

McDonald calls this another “Orange Wall” ride.

He says the newly created riding center has seen demographic changes driven by the expansion of urban families in search of affordability, making it “kind of an NDP place.”

Incumbent New Democrat Andrew Mercier won with 47 percent of the vote in 2020, when the race was still known as Langley. The new seat largely includes the seat that had been awarded to British Columbia Liberal or Social Credit candidates in all previous elections up to 1966.

Maple Ridge East

This rider has sided with the party that has formed government in every provincial election since 2001.

It is held by the NDP's Bob D'Eith, while the Conservatives field political newcomer Lawrence Mok.

McDonald points out that every rider he has selected as a front-runner includes a Green Party candidate. He says the Greens have seen some momentum as the NDP moved to the center in response to the Conservatives on measures like the carbon tax and involuntary care.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.