5 factors behind Congress' Haryana setback

As far as the Congress campaign was concerned, Bhupinder Hooda had a free hand

New Delhi:

By 9 a.m., an hour after votes were counted for the Haryana elections, the Congress had vastly overtaken the BJP. Jalebis and dhols marked the celebrations at the Congress headquarters in Delhi, drawing a sharp contrast to the deserted BJP office.

But an hour later, the tide turned and the BJP was back in the game. Two more hours later, the BJP was clearly ahead and appeared to be heading for its biggest win in Haryana, far exceeding poll predictions. Now the BJP headquarters was abuzz with activity, with laddoos, jalebis and all the trimmings. Congress leaders hoped against hope for a turnaround in what had initially been a back-and-forth affair. There are still a few counting rounds left, but the picture is unlikely to change.

Here are the five factors that contributed to Congress' setback

Power struggles in Congress: In the 2019 elections, the Congress won 31 seats in Haryana. If current numbers hold, the party has not significantly improved its performance to enable a comeback.

A key factor is the internal power struggles within the party and the dispute among its top leaders for power. Long before the election, Congress leaders had claimed that victory was a foregone conclusion and began vying for the chief minister's post. The power struggle between Congress veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda and senior leader Kumari Selja was open and required a lot of damage control behind the scenes.

While the Congress struggled to put up a united front in the run-up to the elections, it was clear that the main opposition was a divided house. Mr. Hooda had a free hand in deciding on candidates or alliances. The results show that this did not work.

Regional forces and independents are ruining it for the opposition: While the Congress is marginally ahead of the BJP in vote share, trends show that it has not been very successful in converting it into seats. In several seats the margin is very small, suggesting that regional parties and independents took advantage of the anti-incumbency vote in Haryana, which benefited the BJP.

However, the regional parties were unable to score points in this election. The INLD and the BSP are currently leading by one seat each, with four independents ahead.

Anti-Jat Consolidation: While the Congress led by Mr Hooda focused on Jat votes, there appeared to be a counter-consolidation of non-Jat votes in favor of the BJP. In the run-up to the election, NDTV had repeatedly heard a term – Jatshahi (meaning Jat supremacy). A Congress victory would have indicated that the influential community would regain prominence in the state. Instead, other communities appear to have voted overwhelmingly for the ruling party.

BJP's backroom work: Although poll analysts had written off the BJP in Haryana, quiet work on the ground turned the tide in the ruling party's favour. Union minister and BJP leader Dharmendra Pradhan has been tasked with leading the party's campaign for the tough elections and as trends show, he has delivered in style. The BJP's electoral machinery has once again snatched victory from the Congress. Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar told NDTV that it is important for the party to think about why it cannot convert public support into votes.

BJP's Urban Supremacy: Over the last decade, the BJP has consolidated its support in urban areas of Haryana such as Gurgaon and Faridabad. Congress had expected to sweep the rural areas, but this does not appear to have happened to the extent that it would have liked. The BJP is currently in the lead in Gurgaon, Faridabad and Ballabhgarh.