Paul Blackburn will not return in 2024

The Mets defeated the Brewers yesterday and are now just one win away from advancing to the National League Division Series. But regardless of how deep they go in the postseason, righties Paul Blackburn will not be an option for them. Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that the year was done for the rights, and Newsday's Tim Healey was one of those breaking the news on X.

Blackburn were acquired by the Athletics before this year's deadline. The Mets have had a few injuries in their rotation including Christian Scott And Kodai Senga both on the shelf, so they sent brochure Kade Morris to Oakland to bring Blackburn on board.

Unfortunately, the deal hasn't worked out for them so far. Blackburn made five starts with a 5.18 earned run average before landing on the 15-day injured list due to a bruised right hand sustained when he was hit by a comebacker. While he was still on the IL, it was reported a few weeks ago that he was dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back. That sounded pretty bleak, but the club still had hope of a return.

However, with today's update that won't happen. At this point, it's not a devastating blow to the Mets, as the extra days off in the playoffs and pivotal circumstances result in smaller starting rotations. The Mets have Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana And Luis Severino as their current top three, with David Peterson And Tylor Megill also about possible options. Megill is not on the wild card list but could be used in the coming weeks if needed.

Senga could perhaps be an option down the line as well, but he probably wouldn't be relied upon for bulk. He suffered a strained shoulder capsule during spring training and didn't make his season debut until July. In his first start he suffered a strained left calf and landed straight back on the injured list. According to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com

Back to Blackburn: The club could still make some profit from this swap as he can be retained for another season through arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $4.4 million next year. Since the start of 2022, Blackburn has thrown 290 1/3 innings with a 4.43 ERA, a 20.2% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate and a 44.8% groundball rate .

He would be well worth this modest arbitration increase if the Mets believe he can produce that kind of performance next year. The club has a relatively open rotation in 2025, with both Quintana and Severino scheduled to become free agents. Manaea's contract still runs for one year, but he has an option to exit as long as he is still healthy in a few weeks. Scott recently underwent Tommy John surgery and could miss the entire season. José Butto could return to a starting role, but he's had success in the bullpen, which could tempt the club to keep him there.

This leaves the club with a planned rotation of Senga, Megill and Peterson in 2025. Interested parties like Brandon Sproat And Blade Tidwell have reached Triple-A, but so far have had no success at that level. Given the number of innings available, it makes perfect sense to offer Blackburn a contract. Even if the club pursues more capable pitchers in free agency and moves him out of plans, Blackburn would have some trade value they could exploit.