Target the Bruins as big underdogs

It feels like Penn State will follow a familiar pattern in 2024.

The Nittany Lions are undefeated through the first month of the season, but ask any Penn State fan and they'll probably tell you they've been far from convincing despite being the No. 7 ranked team and the third favorite to win Victory is considered the Big 10 behind Ohio State and Oregon.

The Nittany Lions got off to an impressive start with a 34-12 win over West Virginia in Morgantown, but a week later Bowling Green gave them quite a scare in their home opener.

Penn State trailed the Falcons by four points at halftime and needed a late touchdown in the fourth quarter to secure the 34-27 victory.

A resounding 56-0 victory over Kent State seemed to get James Franklin's team back on track a week later, but the skeptics were out again after it took three quarters to beat the Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium last weekend Illinois could separate.

In other words, Penn State has had impressive and disappointing performances in its first four games and now has a hard-to-predict UCLA team that enters as a 28.5-point national underdog.

UCLA vs Penn State odds

The first thing to note about this game is that it is questionable whether UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers can be played.

And while you obviously want the starting quarterback to be healthy when betting on the Bruins, it's been quite a struggle for Garbers in the first month.

He has six picks and just three touchdown passes this season and the last thing you want is your big underdog passing the rock.

It's not just turnover that's troubling UCLA.

The Bruins had just struggled to move the ball at all and now face a stout defense that has already held two opponents to seven points or fewer this fall.

The optimistic viewpoint is that if Bowling Green can move the ball through the air against this defense, then UCLA can have success as well.

The Bruins are a pass-first offense, so it's not a hopeless matchup.

It's going to be an uphill task to continually beat this Penn State defense, but when you're scoring 27.5 points, you're not asking for the offense to turn into the 2001 St. Louis Rams.

You just need to find a way into the red zone a few times to have a chance to cover.

But the real reason UCLA jumped out as my favorite ugly underdog is that this Penn State offense simply can't be trusted to get the separation needed to cover that kind of spread.

The Nittany Lions have one of the highest rushing rates in the country and that means the clock will move and the game will shorten.

That's always a good thing when you're betting on a big dog.

The other important factor that comes into play here is the schedule.

Betting on college football?

UCLA traveled across the country to start the season, so playing on the other side of the continent at 12 p.m. ET isn't a wonderful situation, but Penn State has tremendous competition at USC next weekend and wants to be just as fresh as possible for this inclination.

That could lead to the Nittany Lions switching players and taking their foot off the gas in the second half.

It may sound like a challenge for UCLA to climb to stay at Penn State, but that's not what we're asking for here. We just hope they can keep it within four touchdowns.

Recommendation: UCLA +28.5 (-112, DraftKings)

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