Nevada vs. San Jose State, Arkansas State vs. South Alabama picks: CFB odds, predictions

With paycheck games now largely lagging behind Group of Five teams, it's time to identify some schools that are flying under the national radar in college football.

This week I'm targeting star passers who are primed to conquer the Mountain West and Sun Belt conferences.

Nevada at San Jose State (7:30 p.m. ET, truTV/Max)

Non-public teams have a better chance of finishing a season as gambling favorites compared to, say, Alabama or Notre Dame.

When you support a team like San Jose State, you don't pay a premium for the helmet, so to speak.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS this season and are comfortably scoring by an average margin of 10.8 points per game.

Why do sportsbooks still post generous numbers when SJSU plays?

Well, just a month ago there was legitimate skepticism about the SJSU program.

Brent Brennan was one of the last coaches to land a major job in the offseason, letting SJSU down late.

AD Jeff Konya turned to Ken Niumatalolo, a proven winner from the Naval Academy (109 wins, 10 bowl bids).

However, one big question remained: What kind of offense would the options-focused Niumatalolo run in the Bay Area?

He quickly allayed those concerns by hiring Craig Stutzmann as his coordinator.

Stutzmann's “Spread n' Shred” offense was a revelation.

Nick Nash, SJSU's preferred receiver, leads the nation in receptions and touchdowns.

And you'd never know that Niumatalolo spent two decades coaching triple-option quarterbacks in Annapolis by watching Emmett Brown do it.

The undersized sophomore is thriving, averaging more than 320 passing yards per game and posting a stellar 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This could be the last week to play against the Spartans before the mystery surrounding this MWC contender is revealed.

Nevada will put up a good fight, but Brendon Lewis will likely fail in a shootout when facing SJSU's pressure defense.

The Spartans rank 30th in both pass rushing and defensive chaos.

I expect a few costly turnovers from Lewis for a comfortable win for the Spartans.

Recommendation: San Jose State -6.5 (-115, FanDuel).

Arkansas State at South Alabama (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

This game features two fast-paced offenses with dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks going against defenses ranked in the bottom 20 of the FBS.

Casual observers may see two inconsistent offenses, but there are simple explanations.

In Arkansas State's case, it has drawn two elite Power Four defenses in the last two weeks (Michigan, Iowa State).

South Alabama also played on the road in Death Valley last week and was mauled by LSU.

Additionally, the U.S. played a game early in the season in which star quarterback Gio Lopez was sidelined due to a turf injury.

Betting on college football?

When Arkansas State's Lopez and Jaylen Raynor go up against the lousy G5 defense, they fill up the stat sheet.

In games against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, Raynor performed like a pure SBC quarterback, totaling 694 yards and five touchdowns.

With the exception of the LSU game, Lopez scored three or more touchdowns in each of his starts this season, helping South Alabama to a scoring average of 57.6 points per game in those three games.

He is flanked in the backfield by Fluff Bothwell, one of the best-kept secrets in college football.

The breakout freshman is averaging more than 8 yards per carry and will face a lifeless ASU defense that ranks 130th in tackles per Pro Football Focus.

Recommendation: Over 61 total points (-110, Caesars).

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post and focuses heavily on college sports. His betting recommendations often focus on situational points, including travel, rest and altitude differences.