Israel's possible responses to Iran's ballistic missile attack are explained

Given the possibility of a significant response in Iran following last week's rocket attack by the Islamic Republic, the political echelon and top brass of the IDF may already be “in full swing” – but which Iranian targets could Israel attack?

The political leadership faces several dilemmas regarding the nature of the IDF's response on Iranian soil. Is it more appropriate to attack military targets, economic targets such as Iranian oil, government structures or targets related to the Iranian nuclear project that threatens Israel and the entire world?

In an attack focused on the regime's military targets, the Iranians have a number of key strategic assets that Israel could target.

For example, it could attack surface-to-surface missile sites. Some of them are placed above ground, others are mobile and have changed location. Others are in underground locations designed to withstand airstrikes.

In addition, drone launch bases and air defense sites are also on the Israeli Air Force's radar.

An F-15 fighter jet flies during a graduation ceremony for Israeli Air Force pilots at Hatzerim air base in southern Israel June 29, 2023. (Credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)

Iran's air defense capabilities

Iran has surface-to-air missile defense systems such as the Russian-made S-300, the Chinese-made HQ-9, and even Iranian-made defense systems with ranges of hundreds of kilometers.

Assuming the political echelon decides to attack Iran's economic infrastructure in response to last week's ballistic missile attack, oil facilities would be important targets.

In such a scenario, oil wells, production processes, transportation, storage and seaports through which Iran exports oil to the world would be at risk.

On the other hand, attacks on infrastructure and production processes risk harming the interests of other countries such as China, Russia and others that do not necessarily support Israel, increasing the likelihood of unwanted entanglement.

Governance goals are also part of Israel's possible response to an Iranian attack. On the table are government institutions, national sites and symbols whose damage could damage the Ayatollah's regime and shake national morale.

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The nuclear project is the most significant undertaking of the Ayatollah regime in Tehran, and its military infrastructure was designed to protect the various sites cleverly placed across Iran – some above ground, others underground.

An attack on Iran's flagship project would eliminate the greatest threat to Israel and deal a serious blow to a regime that has been working on the project for many decades.

Doing the Impossible: Is Israel Alone Capable of Attacking Iran's Nuclear Project?

The IAF is capable of firing missiles from hundreds of kilometers away, reducing the need for refueling and increasing the number of aircraft that can take part in the attack. In addition, the threat to aircraft from Iranian radars and missiles is minimized.

In addition, the Air Force's refueling capabilities at distances of up to 1,800 kilometers allow various fighter aircraft to fly long distances, increasing the effectiveness of the first strike against Iran.

It is important to note that in addition to the F-35 (“Adir”), the F-15 and F-16 are also capable of dealing with and destroying advanced air defense systems.

Additionally, the Air Force's air control, intelligence gathering and long-range electronic warfare capabilities provide high-level defense, precision strikes and preparation for extreme scenarios.

The Air Force has drones like the Eitan, which can operate for over 30 hours at a time and are equipped with weapons and reconnaissance systems. These resources enable multiple waves of attacks rather than just a one-time attack.

An Israeli Air Force (IAF) F35 used to attack Yemen as part of Operation Outstretched Arm (Source: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

However, a large-scale Israeli attack on Iran carries risks that must be taken into account. It can be assumed that the Iranians will not stand idly by in response to a large-scale attack by the Israeli Air Force and will likely retaliate even more violently.

Therefore, the initial attack, if broad and not targeted, must cripple Iran's strategic capabilities to prevent a comprehensive and automatic response to Israeli military bases and the Israeli home front. It is noted that, according to foreign reports, Israel has second-strike capabilities with ballistic missiles and a third option through submarines.

Israel's possible responses to Iran's ballistic missile attack are explained

ByVanessa

Iran's air defense capabilities

By Vanessa

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