The best college football games in October with playoff bets

As the calendar turns from September to October, the stakes in conference races rise for potential College Football Playoff contenders. The first month of the season brought quality non-conference matchups and an SEC classic between Georgia and Alabama. This month will be the separation between the CFP contenders and the bowl-caliber teams.

For this week's CFP breakdown, let's examine the four types of plays that will shape the month. These include ones with massive implications, where both teams not only have a chance to reach the CFP but also host a first-round game or secure a bye. The second category identifies the insidious-important encounters that have the potential to become decisive. The third category includes potential CFP elimination games, where the loser is likely eliminated from the CFP Chase entirely. Game 4 pits teams with CFP hopes against those that could derail legendary seasons.

This post will highlight eight games – two in each category – while listing 24 games that have the potential to shake up the CFP field.

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Massive impact

Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12

Georgia at Texas, October 19

Both games managed to reach 10 million viewers, which is one of the main reasons for the expansion of both conferences. But it's about more than just reviews. Not only are the CFP implications at stake, but these matchups also offer a glimpse into how the conference championship chases could play out. The Big Ten battle royal pits No. 3 Ohio State against No. 6 Oregon while No. 2 Texas takes on No. 5 Georgia.

The Buckeyes (4-0) and Ducks (4-0) last played in 2021, and Oregon ran the ball at will with 269 rushing yards in a 35-28 win. Now both teams are under the Big Ten umbrella and feature former transfer quarterbacks from the Big 12 (Ohio State with former Kansas State star Will Howard; Oregon with ex-Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel). It could be the first of two, maybe even three meetings between Ohio State and Oregon.

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Texas-Georgia may be even more important, at least for the Bulldogs (3-1). After a shootout against Alabama, Georgia would likely miss the SEC Championship with another loss. While this wouldn't end the Bulldogs' playoff hopes, it would prevent them from getting a bye or perhaps hosting a first-round game. As for Texas (5-0), which plays Oklahoma the week before, wins in both games would just about secure a playoff spot based on the remaining schedule.

Other: Oklahoma vs. Texas in Dallas, Oct. 12; Penn State at USC, Oct. 12; Alabama at Tennessee, October 19; Missouri at Alabama, October 26th

Boise State has high hopes of winning the Mountain West behind the nation's leader in rushing yards and TDs: Ashton Jeanty. (Brian Losness/Imagn Images)

Sneaky important

Nebraska at Indiana, October 19

Boise State at UNLV, Oct. 25

Only once since 2007 has Indiana won at least seven games in a season. Nebraska is the only power conference program that hasn't qualified for a bowl since 2016. Both facts could collapse in Bloomington. Should Indiana (5-0) defeat Northwestern this week, the Hoosiers will face Nebraska (4-1) looking for their seventh win. If the Huskers beat undefeated Rutgers, they will also play IU for a bowl spot. Overall, the winner remains a strong contender for a CFP spot. Overall, there is a rich contrast in quarterbacking styles between senior transfer Kurtis Rourke (Indiana) and true freshman Dylan Raiola (Nebraska).

The top two teams in the Group of 5 meet in Las Vegas with a likely spot in the Mountain West championship on the line. No. 25 UNLV (4-0) won against Big 12 opponents Houston and Kansas last week, defeating Fresno State 59-14. The Rebels appear to be a legitimate CFP team and may not be a first-round favorite for one of the top squads. Likewise, No. 21 Boise State (3-1) was just a field goal away on the final play of the game as Oregon went into overtime. For the Broncos, Ashton Jeanty is the country's leading rusher. This matchup (and possibly a rematch in the Mountain West title game) will impact the Group of 5 CFP spot more than any other in the regular season.

Other: Iowa at Ohio State, Oct. 5; Missouri at Texas A&M, Oct. 5; Arizona at BYU, Oct. 12; BYU at UCF, Oct. 26

Possible eliminator

Kansas State at Colorado, Oct. 12

Oklahoma at Ole Miss, Oct. 26

Colorado (4-1) and Kansas State (4-1) were once stalwarts of the old Big 12 North Division, with one or the other contending for the championship in six straight seasons from 2000 to 2005. They have met Big Eight, then Big 12 opponents 66 times before the Buffaloes left for the Pac-12 in 2011. Now they've returned to the Big 12, and this could be the most exciting matchup in the league. Colorado has Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter and projected first-round quarterback Shedeur Sanders, and Kansas State has quarterback Avery Johnson and several quality receivers. Both teams have suffered a loss and another loss could significantly dent their overall potential.

Oklahoma (4-1) and Ole Miss (4-1) each have one loss, and they could have a second loss by the time they meet in late October. If that's the case, it's actually an elimination competition. Kentucky shocked Ole Miss last weekend and Oklahoma lost to Tennessee two weeks ago. It's strange to see these teams meet under the SEC banner, and they've only played each other once before, in the 1999 Independence Bowl. This game promises to be fireworks, based on OU quarterback Michael Hawkins' comeback against Auburn and the high numbers of Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss.

Other: SMU at Louisville, Oct. 5; Utah at Arizona State, Oct. 12; Michigan at Illinois, October 19; LSU at Texas A&M, Oct. 26

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Angry clock

Iowa State at West Virginia, Oct. 12

Florida State at Miami, Oct. 26

The Big 12 once tried to combine Iowa State and West Virginia for a season-ending series, but that didn't work. Last year was the first time they didn't play since the Mountaineers (2-2) moved into the Big 12, but there's usually a little sizzle when they meet. This year, the No. 16 Cyclones (4-0) are strong defensively (7.3 points per game) but have lost three of their last four games in Morgantown. West Virginia plays 11 power conference opponents this year and opened at home with top 10 Penn State. It also lost late in a shootout at Pitt. The battle-hardened Mountaineers are no pushovers and will knock off some Big 12 rivals in October.

Florida State (1-4) is by far the most disappointing team in the country. In the worst-case scenario, the Seminoles were currently looking at one loss, not four. But if there's anything that gives FSU juice, it's the chance to beat No. 8 Miami (5-0). The Seminoles have won three straight in the series, and there's nothing like familiarity to get the best out of a disappointed competitor. Miami barely managed to eke out a win against Virginia Tech when a Hail Mary pass was ruled incomplete after a lengthy video review. But if we've learned anything with this series, it's that (largely) anything is possible, right?

Other: Pitt at North Carolina, October 5; Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech in Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium), October 19; Auburn at Missouri, October 19; Michigan State at Michigan, Oct. 26

(Top photo of Colin Simmons and David Gbenda of Texas: David Buono / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)