Rome Odunze and DJ Moore: NFL Week 5 Start or Sit

When it comes to the Chicago Bears' offensive weapons, it feels like four weeks of the season have been a pretty miserable life. Not least for people who drafted DJ Moore and Rome Odunze respectively. Even with the offseason acquisition of Keenan Allen, it seemed like Moore and Odunze had the most upside potential with supposed generational talent Caleb Williams at quarterback.

Making lineup decisions with these two became a more daunting experience than anything else; There is no consistency, no explosiveness, no competitive spectacle. It all feels like empty farms, even when production is taking place there.

So – are we launching them this week?

analysis

I was surprised to see how similarly Moore and Odunze performed as receivers on some of NFL Next Gen Stats' advanced opportunity metrics.

Here's how they compare:

• Expected reception yards: Odunze – 209; Moore – 206
• Yards per route: Odunze – 1.1; Moore – 1.3
• Airports: Odunze – 379; Moore – 324
• Target quota: Odunze – 15.9%; Moore – 22.8%
• Total EPA: Odunze – -5.2; Moore – -5.6
• Separation value: Odunze – 2.6; Moore – 2.8
• NGS Receiver Evaluation: Odunze – 64.8; Moore – 76.7

Strikingly similar, isn't it? I'm not sure I'm particularly impressed with how great their opportunities were. Is this just a happy coincidence or is it a statistical manifestation of an unimaginative, uninspired route tree for two outside wide receivers?

According to NFL NGS, here is Odunze's route chart:

And here's Moore's:

I think we have every reason to believe that OC Shane Waldron will generate more routes for Moore and Odunze in the middle/between the hashes. All of these route diagrams show to me, creativity-wise, that it's a concerted effort to give DJ Moore the necessary touch.

Caleb Williams will have trouble beating NFL secondaries on the outside. These two receivers' most successful routes were within fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage and closer to the middle of the field than to the sideline.

Conclusion

I'm not convinced that Shane Waldron is a great offensive coordinator. It makes me more and more nervous as the weeks go by that Caleb Williams doesn't seem like he's equipped to succeed. We already have a strong impression that the failed Justin Fields experiment in Chicago took place at an organizational level. It could already be alarm time for Williams' rookie season.

That being said – don’t forget that Derek Carr absolutely torched this second in Week 1. The Panthers' offense is firing on all cylinders, and that could force the Bears to throw a lot. Expect a concerted performance from the Bears on the ground with a resurgent D'Andre Swift and a sneaky Roschon Johnson.

But I am starting both Rome Odunze and DJ Moore this week, if only because this might be one of the last weeks I give them a chance.

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