Huge late-season push lands Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani the NL MVP award

The regular season is over, so it's time to make a final decision on the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. We started the AL and NL Cy Young chases last week. Today we take a look at the NL MVP race.

If my work is new to you, I take a slightly different approach to evaluating current season performance. It is a purely analytical approach based on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualified MLB hitter and calculate the damage they “would have” done based on their mix of launch velocity and launch angle. This is expressed by the adjusted contact value – 100 is the league average, the higher the number the better. I then add the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter's “Tru” Production+, and then distribute them across the mass of his plate appearances to determine his “Tru” batting runs above average. Then I add in Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).

While it usually makes sense to use replacement level as a baseline in most types of player evaluation, I find that league average is quite useful when evaluating elite performance, e.g. for award voting, Hall of Fame voting, etc.

Honorable Mentions

In fact, there's a two-way tie for 9th place between the Cubs' SS, down to the tenth of a decimal place Dansby Swanson and Phillies' 1B Bryce Harperboth with 20.1 “Tru” player runs above average. Swanson was about the average offensive player in the league, but his baserunning/defensive contributions were huge, slightly more than our #2 finisher and slightly less than #8. He finished strong with the bat. Harper hasn't done that – he hasn't done much damage on fly balls this season, with a modest (in this company) 129 Adjusted Flyball Contact Score. He destroyed his line drives and averaged an exit rating of 97.7 mph. SS of the Reds Elly De La Cruz (22.7 TPRAA) was roughly in line with Swanson's average offense/exceptional baserunning and defense scheme, but with a lot more flair. He suffers a little with this method as it avoids overemphasizing his speed.

Braves' DH Marcell Ozuna (26.0 TPRAA) is another MVP contender who has stumbled a bit down the stretch. While his adjusted flyball contact rating of 246 falls only behind our MVP picks among the players listed here today, he actually hits his fly balls harder (96.5 mph average exit velocity) than his liners (96.0 mph), which is not a good sign for his future. Giants' 3B Matt Chapman (29.4 TPRAA) finished strong and signed a long-term contract that will keep him in San Francisco. He is absolutely one of the best all-around position players in the game. His baserunning/defensive value isn't far behind elite shortstop level, and his average exit velocity of 93.2 mph ranks 3rd among players listed here today.

The top five

#5 – C William Contreras (Brewer) – 29.5 TPRAA – The Brewers stole Contreras when negotiating the Sean Murphy deal between the A's and Braves and walked away with a player who has become the game's best at his position. His defense is in the average range, but the bat is real and has even more upside. His adjusted fly-ball contact rating of 234 is elite and he could see a Christian Yelich-like release once he increases his low average launch angle of 6.1 degrees.

#4 – CF Jackson Merrill (Padres) – 31.6 TPRAA – Merrill continued to get better as the season went on, and as much as I love the Pirates' Paul Skenes, I would choose the Padre center fielder if I were chosen for rookie of the year. Merrill's game doesn't have that much of a “wow” factor, it's just a very polished, mature set of skills. He doesn't crush the ball or run as often, but he hits a lot of fly balls without almost ever popping up and adds solid baserunning/defensive value to his bat.

#3 – 2B Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) – 36.3 TPRAA – This guy just rakes. Only our award selection beats Marte's overall average exit speed of 93.7 mph. He smokes all batted ball types, with an average grounder exit velocity of 93.0 mph that's off the charts. There are only a handful of elite MLB hitters who offer above-average baserunning/defensive value, and this guy is one of them.

#2 – SS Francisco Lindor (Mets) – 46.2 TPRAA – Our first-round pick's great finish eliminated any illusion of a legitimate NL MVP race, but Lindor's season was exceptional in its own right. I would sum it up this way: He is an elite baserunner/defender who derives nearly half of his above-average value from these facets of his game. And his bat was worth just as many runs above average (24.8) as Bryce Harper. This is what an MVP candidate looks like.

#1 – DH Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) – 72.5 TPRAA – Then there's this guy. He spent this year rehabilitating from Tommy John surgery and had one of the best offensive seasons ever. Obviously, his 54 home runs get the lion's share of attention – his 313 Adjusted Fly Ball Adjusted Contact Score and average exit velocity of 95.7 mph rank among the best among the players discussed today. But those 59 stolen bases (in 63 attempts) – where did that come from? As a full-time DH, Ohtani received a significant defensive penalty, but was able to offset more than half of it with his baserunning. Let's just say that the Marcell Ozunas and Kyle Schwarbers among his DH brothers don't exactly have that talent.