Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 Prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends and stats

Six leadership changes. Missed throws by the final players of both teams. Five home runs in the last four innings. Game 2 of the NLDS between the Phillies and Mets was an October classic. The series is now tied after Philadelphia suffered a wild deficit, a blown lead and a 7-6 win.

Nick Castellanos hit a home run in the 6th^Th and drove in Trea Turner with the winning run in the bottom of the 9th^Th to even help the Phillies win the series.

Jeff Hoffman took the final and the win after Matt Strahm botched the save early in the 9th minute^Th.Edwin Diaz gave the Mets the lead in the 8th^Th before Tylor Megill scored the Castellanos goal in the 9th minute^Th lose the game.

For Games 3 and 4, the scene now shifts to Citi Field in New York.

Aaron Nola will take the mound for the Phillies, while Sean Manaea will start the game for the Mets.

Let’s dive into the matchup.

We have all the information and analysis you need to know before the game, including the latest on how to catch the first pitch, the scheduled pitching matchup, current team performance, player stats and of course our predictions, tips & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and our team of experts.

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Game details and how to watch Phillies @ Mets – Game 3

● Date: Tuesday, October 8, 2024
● Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
● Location: Citi Field
● City: Flushing, NY
● TV/Streaming: FS1

Don't miss a second of the action and stay up to date with the latest team stats and player news. Check out our daily routine MLB schedule pagealong with detailed matchup pages that are updated live in-game with every out.

Phillies @ Mets odds

The latest odds from Monday:

● Money line: New York Mets (-105), Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
● Spread: Mets +1.5 (-185), Phillies -1.5 (+150)
● In total: 7.5

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Likely starting players for Philadelphia @ New York

● Tuesday's pitching matchup (October 8): Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manaea

○ Mets: Manaea allowed 2 earned runs, struck out 4 and gave up 6 hits in 5 innings against Milwaukee in the Wild Card round.

○ Phillies: Nola has yet to appear in the 2024 postseason. Finished the regular season with a 14-8 record and a 3.57 ERA. Over the last two seasons, Nola has made nine playoff appearances. He is 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA, allowing 20 runs over 48.2 innings.

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Top betting trends and insights to know ahead of Phillies @ Mets

• Sean Manaea last faced the Phillies on September 21st^st Allowed 3 earned runs in 7 innings. Manaea faced the Phils back on June 8th and was bombed for 6 earned runs in just 3.2 innings.
• Aaron Nola last faced the Mets on September 13th^Th and was tested for 6 earned runs in just 4.1 innings. Nola threw a gem against the Mets on May 14th^Th throwing a complete Game 4 hit shutout.
• Francisco Lindor got his 1st^st Hits this series in Game 2 go 2-4 with a few singles. He hit .235 in the postseason.
• Bryce Harper reached his 17th^Th Career home run on Sunday night in Game 2. It was one of two hits on the day for the veteran.
• The Phillies stole 3 bases in 4 attempts against the Mets' pitching in Game 2
• The over is 6-1 in the Phillies' last 7 division games

Playoff stories for Philadelphia and New York

• Mets: Own a 55-42 all-time playoff record. They have reached the World Series five times in their franchise history, winning in 1969 and 1986.
• Phillies: Philadelphia has now made the playoffs 17 times, with an overall postseason record of 69-66. They have won the National League pennant eight times. They won the World Series against the Kansas City Royals in 1980 and the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008.
  In the last 10 years, the Phillies have made the playoffs three times and won five series in those three trips to the postseason.

If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on today's schedule, check out our MLB Top Trends Tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks and predictions for Tuesday's NLDS Game 3 at Citi Field between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets

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Our model calculates predictions for every moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points such as past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we place its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to determine a relative confidence level for each bet.

Here are the best bets our model predicts for Tuesday's Philadelphia @ New York Game 3:

• Money line: NBC Sports recommends a game against the Phillies on the moneyline
• Spread: NBC Sports is staying away from a game on the run line
• Total number of runs: NBC Sports recommends a game with an OVER of 7.5 total runs

Want even more best MLB bets and predictions from our team of experts and tools? Check this out Expert MLB Predictions NBC Sports page for moneyline, spread and overall picks for each of the games on today's calendar!

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