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Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq slide as investors reconsider rate cut bets

U.S. stocks fell on Monday as investors revised their views on interest rate cuts following an underwhelming jobs report a week ago with key inflation data and the start of earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3% after hitting a new record high as stocks surged for the weekend. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led losses with a 0.4% decline.

Oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday, extending their biggest weekly gain in over a year, as traders calculate whether Israel's expected response to Iran's latest attack will be to specifically target the country's oil fields. Brent (BZ=F) hit $80 a barrel during the session for the first time since August.

Hopes for an outsized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have faded after a better-than-expected September jobs report eased concerns about cracks in the labor market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) hit 4% for the first time since August amid doubts about the Fed's next move.

Read more: What the Fed's interest rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans and credit cards

Traders have abandoned last week's bets on a 0.50% rate cut in November and now see an 88% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Those expectations could weigh on stocks, which have risen to record levels amid confidence that big interest rate cuts and a “soft landing” for the economy are on the table.

Now it's time to wait for October's consumer inflation report, due out on Thursday, to provide new insight into whether the Fed is making progress in reducing already cooling price pressures to its 2% target.

The start of third-quarter results is in focus as Goldman Sachs (GS) raised its target for the S&P 500 and said it expects higher margin growth for enterprise companies. Following Pepsi's (PEP) results on Tuesday, the season begins in earnest on Friday with reports from major banks JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BlackRock (BLK).

Live6 updates

  • DJT Stock Rises After Elon Musk Appears at Trump Rally

    Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) rose about 15% on Monday after Elon Musk made a surprise appearance at Donald Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend – the same place where the former president survived an assassination attempt in July .

    The tech billionaire, who serves as CEO of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX and also owns the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), has clearly expressed his support for Trump ahead of next month's election. Trump has even said that he would consider a Cabinet post for Musk, but that the businessman probably wouldn't be able to serve “in all the things he has going on.”

    At Saturday's rally, Musk told the crowd that Trump is the only candidate who can “preserve democracy in America,” adding that if Trump doesn't win, this will be “the last election.”

    The former president remains in a deadlocked race against current vice president and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who has just made numerous media appearances trying to consolidate recent momentum in the polls.

    Harris appeared on an episode of “Call Her Daddy,” a popular podcast for Generation Z, along with a sit-down interview for “60 Minutes.”

  • Super Micro Computer shares are rising on demand for AI servers

    Nvidia (NVDA) customer and AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose as much as 17% on Monday after the company reported delivery data.

    Super Micro Computer announced Monday morning that it has shipped over 2,000 of its high-end servers to major AI data centers since June. The company said it is now selling servers with over 100,000 AI chips per quarter – a sign that there will not be a decline in AI demand in the near future, as analysts and investors have feared. The server maker said it sells its hardware to “some of the largest AI factories ever built.”

    Super Micro's stock rise on Monday is helping the company recover from a downturn in late September, when shares fell 15% after reports that the company was being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice for possible accounting violations.

    Super Micro stock soared at the start of 2024 as Big Tech rushed to develop new generative artificial intelligence technologies with ever-increasing energy demands. The stock has fallen since reaching highs of nearly $120 a share in March.

  • Oil extends gains, rises 2% as market awaits Israeli retaliation against Iran

    Oil prices extended gains on Monday after posting their biggest weekly gain in more than a year on expectations of Israeli retaliation against Iran for last week's missile attack.

    West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) rose more than 2% to trade above $76 a barrel after gaining more than 9% last week. Brent crude futures (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also rose more than 2%, hitting $80 a barrel for the first time since August.

    Tel Aviv has announced a retaliation after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Traders have priced in the possibility that a response will target Iran's oil infrastructure.

    “The Iranian military has responded by saying that any attack by Israel would trigger an even stronger response from Iran, so the impact of the geopolitical phases on crude oil continues to grow,” Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, wrote on Monday.

  • 'Mag 7' Stocks Mixed: Nvidia Rises 1%, Amazon Falls 2%

    Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN), two of the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech stocks, moved in opposite directions on Monday.

    Chip heavyweight Nvidia rose more than 1% to trade above $126 per share.

    E-commerce and cloud giant Amazon fell more than 2% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-weight on expectations that advertising revenue will slow.

    According to Ken Gawrelski, an analyst at Wells Fargo, growth in Amazon's cloud division is unlikely to offset the decline in margins. “AWS strength alone is not enough,” he wrote.

    Magnificent Seven stocks were mixed on Monday, with Nvidia rising while Amazon fellMagnificent Seven stocks were mixed on Monday, with Nvidia rising while Amazon fell

    Nvidia shares rose more than 1%

  • Stocks open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield tops 4%

    Major averages opened lower on Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose back above 4%.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.3% after hitting a new record high on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.5%.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (^TNX) hit 4% for the first time since August as hopes of a further 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve faded following a stronger-than-expected jobs report for September.

    Oil prices extended gains on Monday after posting their biggest weekly rise in more than a year, as markets awaited Israel's retaliation against Iran over its rocket fire last week.

    West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) rose more than 1% to trade above $75 a barrel after gaining more than 9% last week. Brent futures (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also rose more than 1% to trade above $79 a barrel.

  • Pfizer shares are rising on reports that Starboard is taking a $1 billion stake

    Shares of Pfizer (PFE) rose 2.6% in premarket trading on Monday as investors reacted to multiple media reports that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a $1 billion stake in the pharmaceutical giant.

    Starboard has turned to Pfizer executives Ian Read and Frank D'Amelio to help turn the tide at the drugmaker, various media outlets reported, citing unnamed sources. Pfizer, the maker of the world's first approved COVID-19 vaccine, has struggled to maintain its dominance after the pandemic. Read and D'Amelio expressed interest in supporting Starboard, the Wall Street Journal reported. Starboard's plans and related changes at Pfizer are unclear.

    The stock's moves early Monday morning will put it in the black for the year, but shares are well below 2022's record highs of nearly $60.

    Pfizer is scheduled to report earnings on October 29th. Wall Street analysts expect the company to report revenue of $14.8 billion, up about 12% from a year ago. Only half of analysts covering the stock recommend buying it, according to Bloomberg data.

By Vanessa

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