October 4th More clouds today, then a warm weekend and autumnal cold next week

Friday, October 4, 2024

Morning report

We'll end the week on a warm note, but we'll have to deal with some areas of dense fog this morning. While there will be more clouds during the day, the afternoon should be warm in the 70s. A few scattered showers are possible this afternoon and tonight.

The weekend will remain warm, but uncertainty in cloud cover could make viewing the potential Northern Lights difficult. There will be a few evenings to try them out and see.

Next week brings us autumnal chills, while the prospect of tropical weather still holds a 40 percent chance of development and possible flooding in South Florida.

Visibility reports at 6 a.m

Morning surface weather

The group of storms in the Midwest is moving along a cold front heading our way. Clouds will advance from the south throughout the day.

Live satellite and lightning widget

I wanted to show you this view this morning to highlight the morning storms in the Midwest. This front is now more active than the models suggest. It will fade but there is a chance of showers this evening.

There will be a flood of clouds from the south during the day.

Radar simulation 8:00 a.m. to midnight

Things are looking more active inland with isolated showers. I expect this to become more pronounced throughout the day and this evening.

Snapshot at 4 p.m

Afternoon temperatures

Aurora forecast

The two strong solar storms are set to hit Earth over the weekend. The Space Weather Prediction Agency has released these forecast Planetary Kp indices.

In the Mid-Atlantic, we have the best chances in the mountains when the temperature is above 7°C. at lower altitudes above 8.

Note: In order to see, we also need a clear sky and a distance from city lights.

EXTENDED AND TROPICAL FORECAST BELOW

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY, October 4th

Sunrise at 7:06 a.m

Sunset at 6:44 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 51°F

Record temperature of 31°F in 1974 – the earliest frost on record in Baltimore

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 73°F

Record temperature of 92°F in 1954

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5TH

Morning low

Morning fog possible again, then it will clear up.

Afternoon high

A pleasant weekend day with sun and warmer temperatures.

Looking ahead

Sunday evening to Monday evening

A cold front may produce a few thunderstorms, then a fresh air mass will open us up to a much cooler air mass next week.

Jet Stream: Sunday night through Thursday night

Snapshot Wednesday morning

We will have many areas with lows in the 40s.

Tropical view from the National Hurricane Center

As of this morning, there is once again a 40% chance of “something” developing in this region of the Gulf of Mexico in the NEXT 7 DAYS! It is challenged by strong high-altitude winds that push moisture toward South Florida.

ECMWF model: Monday to Thursday

The onslaught of moderate to heavy rainfall could eventually lead to an organized low pressure system on the Atlantic side of Florida. After transit.

Outlook for heavy rain

This looks like a flood for South Florida, with 6 to 12 inches of rain next week.

7 day forecast

A warm weekend to enjoy before the autumn cold sets in next week.

Please share your thoughts and pictures/videos of the best weather or just stay in touch via social media.

Plan for a weather-dependent stem assembly

Severe weather: Storm Smart in October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

Click here to see more and submit an inquiry for your school.

SEE ALSO

Equinox does NOT equal daylight… Not yet

SECOND OF FOUR COMPLETE SUPERMOONS

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF