close
close
Has it become a Cat 6? Do we need a higher standard?

play

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Hurricane Milton was just a tropical storm a day ago, but it strengthened incredibly quickly, forming a hurricane on Sunday afternoon and becoming a dangerous Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours as it crossed the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say some weakening is expected before the hurricane hits Florida's west coast on Wednesday. But such a rapid tightening is frightening.

If it continues, would Category 5 be enough to describe it? Do we need to add a Category 6?

Some experts say yes, but don't expect to see one any time soon.

Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

What hurricane categories are there?

play

What are the hurricane categories and what do they mean?

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a rating from 1 to 5 based only on a hurricane's maximum sustained wind speed. Here's how it's broken down.

CA Bridges, Wochit

According to the NHC, the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Homer Simpson, is a rating of 1 to 5 based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed and the potential for significant losses Human life and damage.

Category 3 and above hurricanes are classified as major hurricanes by the NHC. The categories are:

  • Category 1 hurricane: Sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph. Very dangerous winds would cause some damage – to roofs, shingles and gutters; falling trees; damage to power lines; and likely lead to power outages.
  • Category 2 hurricane: Sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds would cause major damage – major roof damage, downed trees, uprooted trees, damaged power lines and likely power outages.
  • Category 3 (severe) hurricane.: Sustained wind speeds of 111 to 129 mph. There will be devastating damage – extensive roof damage, fallen and uprooted trees, power outages and water shortages.
  • Category 4 (severe) hurricane.: Sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph. There will be catastrophic damage – severe damage to roofs, exterior walls, downed trees, downed utility poles, power outages, water shortages.
  • Category 5 (severe) hurricane.: Sustained winds of 157 miles per hour and above. Catastrophic damage will occur – a high percentage of houses will be destroyed, the roof will fail completely and the walls will collapse; fallen trees; fallen power poles; power outages; Water shortage.

Why does it stop at “157 mph and over” since the categories run in increments of about 20 mph?

Will there be a Category 6 hurricane?

Despite predictions from a “time traveler” in a viral TikTok video last year, we're unlikely to see Category 6 storms in the news any time soon.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Category 5 is already catastrophic and higher numbers are not needed. Critics of the plan have also pointed out that the existence of higher numbers could lead to warnings of “only” Category 1 hurricanes being ignored.

But the idea keeps coming back.

In 2006, ABC News reported that some scientists believed Category 6 could define storms with winds over 175 or 180 miles per hour. Climate scientists in New Zealand floated the idea in 2018 to account for the increasing severity of tropical cyclones due to climate change and warming ocean temperatures.

“Scientifically, (six) would be a better description of the strength of 200 mile per hour (320 km/h) storms and would also better convey the well-known insight that climate change is making the strongest storms even stronger,” he said Climatologist Michael Mann, director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media, said at the time. He pointed out that it makes sense to introduce a new category to describe the extremely strong storms of recent years, as the scale is used both in a scientific context and to assess damage.

Scientists reportedly revisited the idea in 2017 after the formation that year of Hurricane Irma, a Category 5 storm whose top winds reached up to 185 miles per hour.

Jeff Masters, a former NOAA Hurricane Hunter and co-founder of Weather Underground, suggested to Scientific American in 2019 that Hurricane Dorian should have received a Category 6 rating, and that there could even be a Category 7 for storms over 210 mph should be taken into account Hurricane Patricia In 2015, wind speeds in the Pacific Ocean peaked with sustained winds of 215 miles per hour. For years, Masters co-authored a blog on Weather Underground called “Category 6.”

“From a climate change communications perspective, it makes sense to expand the Saffir-Simpson scale to include a Category 6 – and Category 7 – to focus attention on this new type of ultra-intense catastrophic hurricane, which is likely to become increasingly common in the US will occur in the coming decades,” Masters wrote, although he acknowledged there was little support from the NHC for expanding the scope.

A recent paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences argues that higher numbers are needed to “communicate that climate change has caused the winds of the strongest TCs – tropical cyclones – to become significantly stronger.”

Add a category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale? Simpson doesn't think so

play

What do the hurricane categories mean? The video shows damage caused by hurricane winds

Hurricane Categories: Winds define a hurricane and everything is based on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. This video shows the potential damage

Palm Beach Post

In 1991, tropical weather specialist Debi Iacovelli asked Simpson directly whether he thought a new category should be added to his open scale.

“I think it’s irrelevant,” Simpson said. “Because if you are exposed to wind speeds in excess of 150 mph, you have enough damage, if that extreme wind continues on a building for even six seconds, it will cause serious breakage damage, no matter how well it is constructed. It may just blow out the windows, but then again it can actually tear the stairwells and elevator shafts and twist them, and that happens in many buildings so that you can't even use the elevators after experiencing that.

“So I think it doesn't matter what will happen if the wind is stronger than 156 miles per hour. That’s why we didn’t try to go higher anyway.”

How many Category 5 hurricanes have there been in the Atlantic?

According to NOAA's hurricane database, only 41 hurricanes have reached Category 5 strength in the Atlantic since 1924. That's about 2% of the Atlantic storms during this period.

But it's becoming more common: nearly half of them have occurred since 2000, and nine of them have occurred in the last decade.

What was the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic?

play

Why meteorologists don't just measure the impact of hurricanes based on wind speed

While 90% of deaths from hurricanes and tropical storms are due to water impacts, the traditional hurricane category rating is based solely on wind speed.

Accuweather, Accuweather

Hurricane Allen reached maximum sustained winds of 190 miles per hour in 1980. Hurricane Labor Day in 1935, Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, Hurricane Dorian in 2019, and Hurricane Wilma in 2005 all reached maximum sustained wind speeds of 185 miles per hour.

Mitch (1998), Rita (2005) and Irma (2017) all scored 180.

However, the strength of a hurricane is measured by wind speed and lowest barometric pressure, and according to this measurement, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 (882 mbar) is the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

By Vanessa

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *