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Tampa Bay hasn't been hit by a direct hurricane since the catastrophic storm of 1921 – and Milton is expected to fare even worse

Tampa Bay hasn't experienced a direct hurricane in more than 100 years – and the approaching Category 5 Hurricane Milton is expected to bring a storm surge to the low-lying city unlike anything ever recorded in the area.

The last time a storm hit Tampa was in October 1921, when the Tarpon Springs Hurricane hit the then small city with winds of 120 miles per hour and a storm surge of 11 feet.

According to the National Weather Service, at least eight people died – mostly from flooding – which caused ocean waves to break in the middle of downtown until the floods subsided.


Hurricane Tarpon Springs in 1921 flooded downtown Tampa Bay, leaving ocean waves crashing through city streets
Hurricane Tarpon Springs in 1921 flooded downtown Tampa Bay, leaving ocean waves crashing through city streets Hillsborough County Library

And while Tampa has weathered some major storms in recent years, the city hasn't faced the brunt of a storm during this time.

That's expected to change this week when the still “explosively” strengthening Hurricane Milton makes landfall around Wednesday with a record-breaking storm surge of up to 12 feet – and experts fear the city may not be prepared for what what's coming.

“It’s a huge population. It's very exposed, very inexperienced and it's a lost cause,” said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who noted that Tampa has grown exponentially since 1921, when it last faced and was devastated by a similar storm.

“I always thought Tampa was the city I would be most concerned about,” he said, explaining that the Tampa area's low-lying, basin-like topography makes it particularly vulnerable to storm surges and flooding.


Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida on Wednesday, sweeping across the entire state
Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida on Wednesday, sweeping across the entire state National Hurricane Center/NOAA

Hurricane Milton is currently heading toward Florida at 175 miles per hour. The predicted 12-foot storm surges have never been predicted for the area before.

As it approaches land, the raging storm is expected to lose some strength and reach either a high Category 3 or Category 4, according to meteorologists at Fox Weather.

But unlike most landfalls, where wide swathes of land quickly weaken the storm's strength, Milton is currently forecast to blow directly over the Florida peninsula.

That means there isn't enough land to slow the storm and it will likely spread across the entire state as a full-blown hurricane, Fox Weather said.

Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene hit the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4, bringing a 20-foot storm surge before hitting the area and five other states in the US Southeast devastated.

By Vanessa

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