Test for Modi's BJP as vote counting begins in Kashmir and Haryana

Early trends show that an alliance of opposition parties is ahead as votes are counted following the first general election in Indian-administered Kashmir in a decade.

This was also the first general election held since the federal government revoked the region's autonomy in 2019 and converted the former state into a federally administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

Votes are also being counted in the northern state of Haryana, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is currently a few seats ahead of the largest opposition Congress party.

These were the first state elections in India since the general elections in which the BJP returned to power with a result reduced majority.

Election polls have given opposition parties, including the Congress, a lead in both Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana. But analysts warn that these polls published by various news outlets have often been wrong in the past.

Both states have 90 parliamentary seats and a party or coalition that passes the halfway mark can form the government.

According to the votes counted so far, in Jammu and Kashmir, a Congress-National Conference (NC) coalition is ahead with around 40 seats, while the BJP is leading with 22 seats.

In Haryana, the Congress and the BJP are currently engaged in a neck-and-neck battle.

These numbers could change as more votes are counted.

In the three-phase elections in Jammu and Kashmir, top leaders of the BJP and Congress made several promises, including restoration of full statehood.

Lots of voters told the BBC that they hoped the election would give them a chance to voice their concerns after years of having no local representatives.

But many say they are skeptical about the influence the elected government will have, as the prime minister must seek approval from the federally appointed lieutenant governor when making major decisions.

After the last election in 2014, the BJP formed a government with the regional Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But in June 2018, they parted ways due to political and ideological differences amid increasing violence in the Kashmir Valley. Since then, Delhi has ruled the region.

The 2024 election was closely watched as it was seen by federal officials as evidence of normality in a region that has faced decades of militancy.

The region has seen violent insurgencies against Indian rule for more than three decades, leaving thousands of people dead.

India blames Pakistan for fomenting the violence, a charge its neighbor denies. The countries have fought two wars over Kashmir, both of which claim full ownership but only partially administer.

For the first time in decades, several separatists supporting Kashmir's independence from India took part in the elections. Exit polls had pointed to a blocked meeting smaller players and regional parties could play a decisive role in the formation of the government.

These polls also suggested that the BJP could do well in Jammu, while regional parties like the PDP and NC could play a crucial role in the Kashmir Valley.

In Haryana state, the ruling BJP faced the challenge of bucking the incumbency after a decade in power.

Exit polls have given the Congress a clear majority in the state, although trends so far point to a closer fight.

Congress' prospects were also boosted by anger over controversial federal farm laws – now withdrawn – and a short-term BJP recruitment program for the army.

The farm laws had sparked months of protests by farmers in Haryana and neighboring states as protesters feared they would allow private players to enter agriculture.

Adding to this, the short-term army recruitment program, Agniveer, is a contentious issue in the state a significant number of soldiers to the Indian Army, especially at a time when India is grappling with an employment crisis.