America's hurricane election disaster

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It's hard to say exactly when Kamala Harris' momentum began to fade. But it was somewhere between her attack on Donald Trump in last month's debate and the time Hurricane Helene hit the East Coast. This storm, which caused the worst devastation in years, is now being followed by the equally threatening Hurricane Milton. Amid the flooding, evacuations and deaths, there has been a storm of disinformation about the U.S. federal government's alleged negligence. Apparently everything is Harris' fault, including the weather.

It would be foolish to predict the storm's impact on next month's election. George W. Bush's mishandling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 came after his reelection, although it may have affected the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections the following year. Contrary to expectations, Helene's wreckage may actually benefit Harris' turnout, as heavily Republican areas in rural Georgia and North Carolina were hit harder than their cities. Florida, next on the hurricane season target list, is no longer a swing state.

The point is that almost anything—beyond the proverbial transoceanic flap of a butterfly's wings—can influence the outcome of an election that is essentially a bad decision. The chances that Harris could lose to Trump and vice versa are even. “Experts” who claim to know the outcome are bluffing. No pollster can get into the minds of a few hundred thousand swing state voters who don't yet know their own minds.

Therefore, while he doesn't need an invitation, Trump's propensity to make this a category five election is even greater than normal. That's what he does. In recent days, he alleged that Harris used Federal Emergency Management Authority money to house illegal immigrants; that Democrats are diverting aid away from Republican voting areas; that Joe Biden didn't even bother to call the Republican governors of the affected states; and that government relief measures do not come into force.

Each of these is untrue or a terrible distortion. However, many have been amplified by Elon Musk, the richest man in the world and owner of X, about which he spreads such disinformation on a daily basis. In fact, Fema is constantly short of cash. But it's not Democrats who are voting against its funding. Furthermore, Trump is demonstrably guilty of what he accuses Biden and Harris of. As president in 2020, he made it publicly clear that states with friendly Republican governors would receive priority for Covid-19 funding.

Based on the rule of thumb that Trump's accusations are confessions, his rhetoric heralds the stormy wreckage of America's 2024 election. It's not just Trump who is suggesting that the assassination attempts against him in July and September were a conspiracy by the Democratic establishment. This also applies to his vice president JD Vance, his campaign staff and his various surrogates, including Musk. Trump is not the only one claiming that the vote on November 5th will be manipulated. Last Saturday, Musk said next to him: “This will be the last election in America if you don't vote.” Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump called the election a battle of “good versus evil.”

This is not the kind of rhetoric you can turn off the day after a loss. Millions of Republican voters believe that very bad people are planning to rig this election. It follows that what happened on January 6, 2021 was not an aberration. Trump has promised to pardon the January 6 “martyrs” and release his “hostages” from prison. This also serves as a forward-looking green light for anyone attempting the same thing. The likelihood that Trump would refuse to concede in the event of defeat is high. He faces several delayed criminal proceedings. Harris' career was based on working as a prosecutor. She is unlikely to appoint a timid attorney general.

Plan A, of course, is to defeat Harris by any means necessary. Musk is a powerful ally in this quest. It doesn't matter whether he's driven by anger – as the owner of Tesla, he was hurt by his exclusion from a White House summit on electric vehicles in 2021 – or by his desire for tax cuts. He may also have been on an ideological path to Damascus. Judging by Musk's posts, he believes in the “Great Replacement Theory” that Jewish liberals are bringing in illegal voters who outnumber white Americans.

The point is that Musk's unmatched firepower is at Trump's disposal. Musk is the Henry Ford of 2024. The plutocratic automaker was a strong supporter of Charles Lindbergh's anti-Semitic America First movement in the run-up to World War II. America now faces another gathering storm. Whoever wins in a month will likely need disaster relief.

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