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Where is Hurricane Milton heading?

Helen Willetts with the latest forecast as Milton reaches Florida

Hurricane Milton has hit Florida, with U.S. officials warning that central parts of the southern state are experiencing “life-threatening storm surge, extreme winds and flash flooding.”

The storm comes just two weeks after Hurricane Helene caused significant damage in the southeastern United States.

When did Hurricane Milton hit Florida?

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Milton made landfall in Siesta Key, Florida – a coastal community south of Tampa – around 8:30 p.m. EST (3:30 a.m. BST on Thursday) on Wednesday.

More than two million households and businesses are without power, dozens of homes have been destroyed and an as-yet-undetermined number of deaths have been reported.

Forecasters continue to warn of torrential rain, flash flooding, strong winds and possible storm surges of several feet as water flows inland from the coast.

Tornadoes were also reported on Milton's approach.

An annotated BBC graphic says "Storm surges could overwhelm homes in Florida"and then shows how potential waves (up to 15 feet) could be almost as tall as a house. The graphic shows that flooding is more deadly during high tide

Where is Hurricane Milton heading?

Annotated BBC map tracking Hurricane Milton's path towards Florida. The graphic shows the hurricane moving from the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, passing over Tampa after 2 a.m. Thursday and Orlando before 2 p.m. the same day.

With wind gusts recently recorded up to 90 miles per hour (150 km/h), Milton will continue to impact Florida as it cuts through the middle of the state. Georgia and South Carolina are also affected.

It is then expected to head into the Atlantic Ocean later in the day.

During its days-long journey, Milton moved eastward from the Gulf of Mexico, where it was classified as a category one hurricane on Sunday. It has also grazed Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Before hitting Florida, the meteorologist said it “wobbled” south, prompting forecasters to change its course slightly.

The storm is affecting some of the areas recently decimated by Hurricane Helene. Tampa, whose metropolitan area is home to more than three million people, is north of Siesta Key, where the storm made landfall.

An annotated BBC satellite image shows the position of Hurricane Milton as it passes over the US state of Florida. Locations marked include Tampa and the countries of Mexico and Cuba

Where are the evacuation zones for Hurricane Milton?

Traffic jams formed and airports announced closures as Floridians were urged to prepare for the state's largest evacuation effort in years. Officials said Milton could be the worst storm to hit the area in about a century.

As the hurricane approached, most counties were under an official state of emergency and evacuations were ordered along Florida's west coast.

Civil protection authorities issue a list and a map the evacuation orders. As a last resort for those stranded, several large emergency shelters were also set up.

An annotated card with the title "Millions leave their homes in Florida before Milton strikes" shows the various Florida counties where mandatory evacuation orders have been issued, including the city of Tampa

What is a hurricane and how does it form?

Hurricanes – sometimes known as cyclones or typhoons – are a type of tropical storm that forms in the North Atlantic. They bring strong winds and heavy rain.

When ocean air is warm and moist, it rises and then begins to cool – causing clouds to form.

Sometimes this rising air at the head of the hurricane can migrate faster than it can be replaced at the surface, reducing surface pressure.

The falling pressure causes the winds to accelerate, drawing in more air as the hurricane strengthens.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (Noaa) predicted that the 2024 hurricane season would be more active than usual. Rising average sea temperatures due to human-caused climate change are partly to blame, it said.

A BBC graphic describes the basic ingredients of a hurricane, consisting of an ocean surface and body of water with temperatures above 27°C (81°F), a low pressure zone above with horizontally rotating winds, and hot, moist air that rises to form rain clouds

How are hurricanes categorized?

Hurricanes are divided into five categories based on their wind speed.

Milton was classified as a category five storm – the highest – on more than one occasion, but weakened as it approached the U.S. coast and struck as a category three storm.

After landing, it was further downgraded to category one.

A BBC graphic explains the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. In category one, a hurricane has winds of 74-95 mph (119-153 km/h), with some damage and power outages expected. In category two, a hurricane has winds of 96-110 miles per hour, with significant damage expected. In category three, a hurricane has winds of 111-129 miles per hour, with well-built homes expected to suffer extensive damage. In category four, a hurricane has winds of 130-156 miles per hour, with severe damage expected to well-built homes. In category five, a hurricane has wind speeds of more than 155 mph (250 km/h), with many buildings expected to be destroyed and major roads cut off

How is climate change involved?

Hurricane Milton rapidly strengthened as it passed over exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are about 1-2°C above average.

Warmer water means hurricanes can absorb more energy, potentially leading to higher wind speeds.

A warmer atmosphere can also retain more moisture – up to about 7% for every 1°C increase in temperature. This means that rainfall from hurricanes can be more intense.

And global sea levels have risen in recent decades, largely thanks to global warming.

This increases the likelihood that a given storm surge will cause coastal flooding.

According to the U.S. government, average sea levels in Florida have risen more than 7 inches since 1970.

Quantifying the exact role of climate change in Hurricane Milton requires comprehensive scientific analysis.

But their rapid intensification fits with expectations about how these storms are changing in a warming world.

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By Vanessa

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