The Funnel Defense Report: Week 6

In our eternal mission to predict the future, in my humble estimation, a top-down look at how an offense might attack its opponent's defense is a good place to start.

Every season we find defenses that excel at what is known as a “run funnel,” meaning that opponents rely unusually heavily on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: defenses that are regularly attacked from the air in neutral situations (generally, that means when the game is within seven points either way).

This column is about identifying those matches. We will get better and more reliable data on how teams attack defenses as the season progresses.

This funnel defense analysis shouldn't be the be-all and end-all for determining your weekly fantasy plays. It's just another data point in your nerve-wracking decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

Pass funnel matchups

Commanders against ravens

In the Battle of the Beltway (I can attest that there are many battles on the Beltway every day), there is almost no way the Commanders will compete against the NFL's most pronounced pass funnel defense.

Baltimore's opponents are now 6 percent above expected pass rate this season, leading the league. Teams (somewhat) avoid the Ravens' brick-wall rush defense and attack their vulnerable secondary. We saw this in Week 5 when the Bengals were 5 percent above their expected drop back, resulting in 43 Joe Burrow drop backs. The Bills fell behind on 66 percent of their plays against the Ravens in Week 4, well above their season average of 56 percent. If you're still unimpressed with the Ravens' pass funnel routes, consider that 82 percent of the yards gained against Baltimore in 2024 came through the air. Only five defenses are above 70 percent.

Kliff Kingsbury has opened up the passing game a bit in recent weeks, but not much. Washington still has the lowest neutral pass rate in the league – a rate that has actually dropped over the last two games. Jayden Daniels is simply a mechanically efficient passer. Daniels' rushing prospects and the likelihood that the Commanders will rely on the run as long as possible in this Week 6 matchup likely means Daniels won't throw 40 passes. Still, there may be an unusual amount of Commanders pass-catchers. That includes, of course, Terry McLaurin, whose receiving profile for fantasy purposes has been surprisingly good over the last three games, as I wrote about in this week's regression files.

Zach Ertz could also benefit from Kliff and company increasing the PROE (success rate above expectations) machine. Ertz, much to the Zoomers' dismay, is second on the team with a target share of 18 percent. He is targeted on a not-quite-hateful 17 percent of his pass routes. With Baltimore's defense playing two high-safety coverages at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL, Ertz could see plenty of opportunities from down low. Do you smell what I smell? A real PPR scam. It smells delicious. I'm hungry for seven catches and 49 yards.

Cowboys vs. Lions

Jalen Tolbert is on pace to lead the Cowboys with 10 targets and an impressive 44 percent of the team's air yards in Week 5 against the Steelers. The Sunday Night Football hero could continue in Week 6 against Detroit, the league's second-strongest passing scorer.

Obviously, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson — who played as the team's full-time players last week — should see inflated target volume if the Cowboys break off the run and fall behind 40 or 50 times against Detroit. We know Dallas tends to follow this scenario against a pass funnel. Against the Ravens in Week 3, they were 7 percent above their expected dropback rate. Rico Dowdle could also see a number of targets in such a scenario if he can beat the inevitable Hunter Luepke, who has been leading the Dallas backfield passing routes in the last two games.

For deeper (deepest) league purposes, KeVontae Turpin could be of interest if he has a pass-heavy script. Turpin scored five goals on just 15 pass routes against the Steelers last week. Turpin has the juice. I don't care that this doesn't count as analysis.

Cardinals vs. Packers

Only four teams allowed more yards before contact per rush than the Packers in Week 5. Only seven teams have a higher rushing stuff rate. Only three teams have fewer missed tackles against opposing rushers. This could explain why the Packers' opponents are 3 percent above their expected pass rate this season.

I like the Cardinals' chances of being forced into a pass-heavy script this week in a game with a total of 49.5 (a total that's up three points since Monday). We don't have much 2024 history on the Cards facing pass funnel defense. But when they faced the Lions in Week 3 — a top-two passing funnel — the Cardinals fell behind on 70 percent of their offensive snaps, a season high for them. Kyler Murray had 34 pass attempts, his highest total of the young season. The Cardinals were 9 percent above their expected first-down pass rate in this game; Their seasonal rate is -5 percent. That's the stuff.

Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride would be the obvious beneficiaries of a game in which Murray falls back a ton. Michael Wilson, who was targeted on 18.5 percent of his routes with an average target depth of 11.5, could be a second beneficiary. He should be considered in leagues with multiple flex spots.

Conduct funnel matchups

Lions vs. Cowboys

You know the story: Everyone is running – or at least trying to run – against Dallas' abominable defense. The Cowboys are the sixth-best run-funnel defense in the NFL this season. The pass-first Giants were below their expected drop-back rate against the Cowboys, and, surprisingly to no one, the Steelers' Arthur Smith offense was 6 percent below their expected drop-back rate against Dallas last Sunday night.

The 2024 Lions, similar to the 2023 Lions, want to do it whenever possible. They have a neutral pass rate of 53 percent through Week 5 and a ball play rate of 60 percent when leading. Few teams have been more run-heavy this season. Detroit is 8 percent below its expected drop rate overall and in the last two games they have been 15 percent below it.

I'm hardly breaking news when I say that Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both must-starts in Week 6. Montgomery doesn't have a handle on touches near the painted area so far in 2024. Monty leads the Lions with ten runs inside the ten yard line while Gibbs has seven. Montgomery leads with inside-the-five carries, six to four. Against a Dallas defense with the NFL's lowest rushing stuff rate (33 percent) and the sixth-highest yards before contact per rush, both Detroit defenders should have a big day.

What this means for the Lions' pass catchers is a little less tantalizing. Unless the game script goes crazy in this case, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams will likely split a small piece of the target pie. St. Brown was able to survive Williams' rise as a target earner with a target share of 32 percent. LaPorta, not so much. His target percentage of 11 percent is abysmal and his target rate per route (13.5 percent) is discouraging at best. Detroit's conservative, run-oriented offense leaves an extremely narrow path for LaPorta to return to form, while Williams and St. Brown are hitting 53 percent of the team's targets.

Jets vs. Bills

The Jets, with their defensive-minded interim coach Giga Chad, are going to run the damn ball like no one has ever run the damn ball in Week 6. Jeff Ulbrich won't just establish the run; He will establish the culture while putting a smile on the face of every sports media talker who longs for the success rates of 1987.

The volume pass play didn't work out for the Jets. Thanks to one of the NFL's least efficient passing attacks, they rank 23rd in EPA per game. There is no choice but to hand the ball to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.

Luckily for the Jets this week, they're playing a Buffalo defense that practically begs opponents to establish the run. The Bills play at the fourth-highest rate in the league with two high safety coverages and rarely stack up with defenders. As a result, they allow the highest yards per carry (5.2) and the highest yards before contact per rush. The Bills, the seventh-strongest run-funnel defense, are quite receptive to a variety of four- and five-yard rushes – gains that should appease the Jets this week.

The Jets will likely see a lot of neutral and positive play here against a dysfunctional Buffalo offense that will struggle against New York's defense. That should allow Hall and Allen to regain fantasy relevance for the first time in a while.

Packers vs. Cardinals

On the other side of the aforementioned Arizona-Green Bay matchup, the Packers are set for a second straight game-heavy game (they were 8 percent below their expected drop-back rate against the Rams last week). The Cardinals' opponents' pass rate in neutral situations this season is a league-low 45 percent. As bad as the Arizona secondary was, the team's rush defense wasn't much better: only six teams allow more yards before contact per rush and only four teams give up a higher rushing success rate.

Jordan Mason's inability to make an impact against Arizona in Week 5 was frustrating for fantasy purposes. I understand it. But a closer look at Mason's performance in Week 5 provides a little insight into how the Cards compare to the run: Mason was fifth-best in rush yards last week and exceeded expectations per attempt. Maybe the Niners shouldn't have pulled the plug on the running game so quickly.

Green Bay has proven capable of establishing it against running funnels. I know Malik Willis started Week 2 against the Colts and the Packers game plan was always going to be intense, but the extent to which the Pack have established this is worth nothing. Green Bay was 25 percent below its expected recidivism rate that day. They had a neutral success rate of 9 percent.

Josh Jacobs is not good. We can't change that. Luckily it doesn't matter. He should continue to lead the Packers backfield here, and if the game goes well, Jacobs could see more than 20 touches. With enough script on Green Bay's side, Emanuel Wilson could be in the mix. With 30 touches in the last three games, Wilson is slightly more efficient than the struggling Jacobs – the type of defender who can do a lot with a little.

You could do worse than Wilson if you're out of running back options in Week 6.