Tehran calls on Gulf states to remain “neutral” amid tensions with Israel

Iran has urged oil-rich Gulf states to remain “neutral” after Tehran fired a volley of missiles at Israel last week, as the country pursues a diplomatic initiative in the region and fears the Middle East is drifting into all-out war.

The Islamic Republic has warned its Arab neighbors, who fear being caught in the crossfire, not to “facilitate” an Israeli response by, for example, allowing Israeli warplanes to use their airspace, an Iranian official said.

Regional diplomacy erupted after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government promised a “lethal” response to Iran's ballistic missile attack and intensified its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in particular fear that if Israel feels seriously threatened, Iran could turn on them and potentially attack their oil infrastructure if Israel targets the republic's energy assets.

“The Iranians could threaten to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, which is a concern. The kingdom does not want escalation but is prepared for this eventuality,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator close to the royal court.

Iran is trying to maintain a fragile rapprochement with arch-rivals such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, sending the message that they should discuss their “differences” and “misunderstandings” to resolve regional problems, Arab and Iranian officials said.

“It is a difficult situation for Saudi Arabia and the Iranians know that. “There is a balance between Israel denigrating Hezbollah and Iran and letting things get out of control,” Shihabi said.

Both Iran and the Gulf states are keen to keep diplomatic channels open as the regional crisis deepens. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held talks this week with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who made a rare trip to Riyadh to discuss the “latest regional developments,” the Saudi state news agency said.

Araghchi then flew to Qatar, which has good relations with Tehran and is also home to the largest US military base in the Middle East.

Last week, the Iranian diplomat held talks with Gulf foreign ministers on the sidelines of a meeting of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council in Doha – the first time such talks have taken place at a GCC meeting in years. Two Arab officials described the meeting as “conciliatory” and “cooperative.”

The Iranian official said Tehran had not threatened Gulf states. But he said the message was twofold: “To convince them to help them bring about a ceasefire in the region and to warn them that if Israel attacks Iran, they should not support that attack in any way.”

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been trying to calm their long-standing dispute with Iran for several years. However, they still view the Islamic regime as a malign actor in the region and are aware of the threat it poses.

In 2019 – as Gulf powers supported former US President Donald Trump's maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic – Iran was blamed for a missile and drone attack that temporarily crippled half of Saudi Arabia's oil production, as well as for the sabotage attacks on two tankers in the Gulf.

But in March 2023, Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations and ensured a cold peace between the two adversaries. It is also trying to extricate itself from the conflict with the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, a key point of conflict.

Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have tried to remain on the sidelines of the wave of regional hostilities that erupted after Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. They have pushed for a ceasefire while joining other Muslim states in condemning Israel's conduct of the war.

With the Hamas attack triggering a war with Israel, the United Arab Emirates warned Washington that it did not want US assets in the Gulf state to be used against Iranian targets.

This reflected concerns in Abu Dhabi about the extent to which the US would commit to protecting the UAE from a later retaliation by Iran or the Houthis.

For similar reasons, neither the United Arab Emirates nor Saudi Arabia have joined a U.S.-led maritime task force that has sought to counter Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

“As long as the Americans honor their security commitments to the region, the region must secure itself to protect itself,” said a person familiar with the UAE’s thinking.

However, Riyadh provided assistance to the US when American forces and their allies intercepted missiles Iran fired at Israel in April, Western diplomats said. It's not clear what that meant.

“They are caught between the two regional tyrants Israel and Iran, and neither of them appeals to their vision of the region,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.

Israel's relentless crackdown on Hezbollah – Iran's most powerful proxy – is an example of the predicament the two states find themselves in, she added.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have long considered Hezbollah a “terrorist” organization. They see it as a destabilizing force, not just in Lebanon but throughout the region, and it is in their interest for the group to be weakened.

They accuse the militant movement of training and supporting the Houthis – who have fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the past – and fomenting instability among the Shiite population in their countries.

The Gulf states and Hezbollah have also been on opposing sides in the Syrian civil war, with the former supporting Sunni rebels and the latter fighting alongside Iranian and Russian forces in support of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

In 2017, Riyadh warned that it would treat Lebanon – which has received billions of dollars in Gulf aid in the past – as a hostile state as long as Hezbollah remained in government.

The Saudis and Emiratis have for years worried about the Shiite group's dominance of Lebanese politics at the expense of the Sunni parties they have traditionally supported, reducing Riyadh's political influence in Beirut.

The concern in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, however, is the destabilizing effect of Israel's increasing offensive.

“There is no love lost between Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia, but Lebanon is a sovereign state and this is a very dangerous precedent that the Israelis are setting. “They are making it complicated for everyone,” a Saudi official said.

The official said Israel's actions in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon had “provoked a growing sense of anger (in the Arab world).”

“So the question is: Can anyone take the political step and compromise? At the moment it’s up to Israel.”

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati politics professor, said Gulf states were also concerned about emboldening Netanyahu and his far-right allies in Israel.

“We benefit from (Israel) weakening Iran and its proxies, but we see the cost of encouraging Netanyahu,” he said. “We are trapped in it.” . . We have two devils. One is just as bad as the other.”