Bo Nix player picks, Justin Herbert predictions for Broncos vs. Chargers

Sunday's Week 6 NFL matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers is a dream come true for Oregon Ducks fans.

Former Oregon QBs Bo Nix and Justin Herbert will face off in Denver as their teams look to secure an important AFC West win. Nix and Herbert were great during their time with the Ducks and now they're off to a good start with their NFL teams.

Check out our Bo Nix vs. Justin Herbert player picks and predictions for the Broncos vs. Chargers matchup in NFL Week 6.

It feels like Herbert's productive days are long gone. In the 2021 season, Herbert recorded 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. He managed another 4,700 yards in 2022.

Through four games this season, Herbert is averaging 144.5 passing yards per game – a pace that would put him under 2,500 yards for an entire season.

First-year coach Jim Harbaugh loves the running game, so he focused on that. The Chargers weren't great in the passing game in the third and fourth games either – both losses to strong defenses in Pittsburgh and Kansas City.

They were better against weak Las Vegas and Carolina defenses in the first two weeks, but even in those games Herbert had 144 and 130 passing yards, respectively. That's nowhere near the 188.5 mark he's aiming for for Sunday's game in Denver.

Denver's pass defense ranks second in the league, averaging 5.8 yards allowed per attempt. That's much closer to Kansas City and Pittsburgh than Carolina and Las Vegas. So can we expect Herbert to succeed?

The upper/lower limit at the time of writing is 35.5 points, which is extremely low. Oddsmakers know that both defenses are strong and that neither offense is taking advantage of many opportunities in the backfield.

If you think the Chargers will open the playbook after the bye week, then taking the over for this prop is a good idea. However, since there is no sign that this will be the case, we recommend the Under.

One reason Nix was such a valuable player in college was his dual-threat ability. Luckily for sports bettors, this trait has carried over to the professional level.

Nix has rushed 31 times for 119 yards in five games – both of which rank among the top 10 NFL quarterbacks. His three rushing TDs rank second among QBs, just one behind fellow rookie Jayden Daniels.

The best statistic to support this prop is this: Nix has four rushing attempts from beyond 5 yards this season and has scored on three of them. The Broncos view him as an important part of the offense near the end zone.

The Chargers rank fifth in the league with 3.9 yards per carry allowed and have conceded two rushing touchdowns in four games. That spells bad news for Broncos running back Javonte Williams, but not necessarily for Nix.

Nix has scored on targeted running plays, but is also capable of freelancing when none of his receivers are open in the passing game. That's fantastic value for Nix, doing something he's already done three times this season.