“The Big Project”: The Secret Strategy Behind Hamas’ October 7 Surprise Attack on Israel

On October 7, 2023, rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel by Palestinian militants in Gaza (Image credit: AP)

For over two years, Yahya Sinwar and his top Hamas leaders met in secret and developed a plan that they expected would be the most devastating and destabilizing attack on Hamas Israel in the history of the group. The Israeli military seized minutes of these secret meetings, obtained by The New York Times, which provide a comprehensive account of the preparations for the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack. The documents also reveal Sinwar's determination to convince Hamas allies Iran and Hezbollah to join the attack or at least engage in a broader confrontation with Israel.
The documents reviewed by the Times consist of minutes from 10 confidential planning sessions involving a select group of Hamas political and military leaders leading up to the meeting October 7 attack. The minutes contain 30 pages of previously unpublished information about the inner workings of the Hamas leadership and the extensive preparations for the attack. The documents outline the leadership group's key strategies and assessments, including the original plan to carry out the attack in fall 2022, which was delayed as Hamas sought the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah.
Hamas leaders cited Israel's “internal situation” and likely pointed to the controversy surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to reform the judiciary as one of the reasons they felt “forced to engage in a strategic battle.” In July 2023, a senior Hamas official traveled to Lebanon to meet with a senior Iranian commander and ask for his help in attacking sensitive locations early in the attack. The Iranian commander expressed his general support but noted that Iran and Hezbollah needed more time to prepare.
The documents also mention Hamas's intention to discuss the attack in more detail with Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's then-leader, but do not specify whether the discussion took place. Hamas relied on the general support of its allies but concluded that it might have to proceed without their full participation, including to prevent Israel from deploying an advanced new air defense system before the attack.
Hamas decided to launch an offensive to prevent the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The group also sought to challenge Israel's increasing occupation of the West Bank and its attempts to assert more authority over the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem. These factors combined to influence Hamas's decision to engage in armed conflict.
The attack was seen as a means to disrupt the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region, particularly the potential for improved relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In addition, Hamas sought to resist Israel's consolidation of control over the West Bank and its efforts to exert greater influence over the holy site in Jerusalem.
Hamas deliberately avoided major confrontations with Israel for two years starting in 2021 in order to maximize the surprise of the attack in 2023. The documents also show that Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip informed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas's Qatar-based political leader, about “the big project,” a fact that was not previously known.
The documents offer a fuller understanding of one of the most pivotal moments in the modern history of the Middle East, showing that it was both the result of a long-term plan and a move influenced by specific events following Netanyahu's return to power in Israel in late 2022 .
The attack on Israel resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and led to Israel's bombing and invasion of the Gaza Strip, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and militants. The conflict eventually escalated into a larger war between Israel and Hamas' regional allies.
The extent of Iran's and Hezbollah's knowledge of Hamas's original plans has been a continuing mystery in the context of the events of October 7. This question has taken on new importance in recent weeks following Israel's invasion of Lebanon and Iran's attacks on Israel.
While Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly denied Iran's involvement in the attack and U.S. officials have described intelligence suggesting that key Iranian leaders were caught by surprise, Hamas leaders have spoken at length about the support they received from regional allies have received. There were also scattered and sometimes conflicting reports of Iranian and Hezbollah officials helping to plan the attack and train fighters.
The log was discovered on a computer in late January by Israeli soldiers as they searched an underground Hamas command center in Khan Younis, from which the group's leaders had recently escaped.
To assess the authenticity of the documents, the Times shared some of their contents with members and experts close to Hamas. The Israeli military also concluded that the documents were authentic in a separate internal report obtained by The Times.