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La Niña in winter? Why the weather phenomenon will only arrive slowly in 2024

ByVanessa

Oct 15, 2024 #atmosphere, #Atmospheric Science, #channel, #Christmas, #Climate, #Climate Change u0026 Global Warming, #Climate Science, #Climate(t.) )Change, #Global, #In a Nutshell, #LA, #La Nina (Weather), #Mid-Atlantic, #Mid-Atlantic(t.) ) Pacific Ocean, #Modular, #Modular History, #N4N News, #Neutral, #Nina, #Ocean, #Overall Neutral, #Pacific, #Point, #Science, #Story, #The, #The Weather Channel, #to, #Total, #u0026, #Warming, #Weather
La Niña in winter? Why the weather phenomenon will only arrive slowly in 2024

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The long-promised La Niña climate pattern has not yet formed but is expected to emerge within the next month or so, federal scientists announced Thursday.

Specifically, the Climate Prediction Center said there is a 60% chance of La Niña conditions occurring by the end of November. And once it forms, it is expected to last from January to March 2025.

Regarding La Niña, climate scientist Michelle L'Heureux told USA TODAY that “the onset is delayed… It hasn't formed yet.” She added that the delayed onset could mean a weaker version of La Niña if it does actually forms.

Another forecaster, AccuWeather's Jason Nicholls, agreed, noting, “It still looks like a weak La Niña will form in the coming months, which is expected to be short-lived.”

La Niña often creates weather patterns that increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, which if it forms could still impact the end of this year's season. It also influences winter weather in the United States and around the world.

What is La Nina?

La Niña is a natural climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When water cools at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average for three months, La Niña is declared.

“Although this sounds like a small change in temperature, it could cause significant changes in weather patterns around the globe,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada.

It is one of the major factors affecting the weather in the United States, particularly in late fall, winter, and early spring. It is the opposite of the more familiar El Niño, which occurs when waters in the Pacific Ocean are at least 0.9 degrees warmer than average for three months.

What could La Niña bring next winter?

According to the Climate Prediction Center, a typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most Southern states. The Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic also tend to have above-average temperatures during the La Niña winter.

According to the Weather Channel, New England and the upper Midwest up to New York tend to experience below average temperatures.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its official winter forecast on Thursday, and L'Heureux said the likely La Niña will be an important part of the forecast.

Other forecasters were also on the lookout for La Niña: Earlier this week, the Japanese Meteorological Office said that while there were currently no signs of El Niño or La Niña phenomena, the characteristics of La Niña were approaching.

What is El Niño? What is ENSO neutral?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are above average. On average, it occurs every two to seven years.

His name means “the little boy” or “Christ Child” in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 16th century when unusually warm waters occurred in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle fluctuates between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is characterized by cooler than average sea water in the region.

When water temperatures are neither unusually warm nor cool, conditions are considered “ENSO neutral.”

Here's what's happening now: “Eastern and central Pacific waters near the equator remained near average temperatures this month,” Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce said Thursday. This means that neither El Niño nor its counterpart La Niña will last.

Contribution: Reuters

By Vanessa

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