The weather relief is slowly coming

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, USA – In early 2024, as meteorologists tried to get the spotlight, there appeared to be a connection for the upcoming summer season to some of the hottest years on record. World Weather examined the lunar cycle and found a common theme in the summers of 2006, 1988, 1970, 1952 and 1934.

Each of these years had a higher than usual number of 100-degree days compared to other summers in the Great Plains, the Western Corn and Soybean Belt, and the Delta. This parallel was used in the 2024 summer outlook along with a drier trend apparently associated with the same years. Instead of heat and drought, the Midwest experienced timely rain and seasonally warm temperatures. How far off was this forecast?

It was close, but no winner. The heat of 2024 was close to the corn and soybean belt, but did not extend into the heart of the growing season. However, the history books will record an above-average number of 100-degree days from Texas to Kansas in 2024 – similar to what was forecast for the summer, although the heat remained a little too far to the west. The real hottest weather was in the far western states, with California and many neighboring states recording many extremely warm to hot days. Hot weather recorded in each of the five lunar cycle years listed above was confirmed, but was simply too far west to have much impact on grain and oilseed production.

Key U.S. growing regions did not appear to experience severe drought this year – at least until July – as well as a lack of excessive heat. The weather in August began to tend to become drier, and the dryness increased manifold in September and early October. The drought was expected to continue until October 20th. The only exception to the late-season drought was in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, where hurricanes Francine and Helene caused terrible storms and flooding.

The two tropical cyclones and another that struck the Gulf of Mexico and Florida in the second week of October (Hurricane Milton) each contributed to the drought trend that developed in late summer and caused it to continue into early October, with until after Limited relief was forecast October 20. This drought and some reports of weaker than usual precipitation early in the summer have created somewhat more parallels to the hot, dry summer predicted across the Plains and western Corn Belt. As it turns out, the drought that began in August and dominated September and now October is very similar to that of 1952.

The 1950s are commonly referred to as drought years, and 1952 was one of many drought years in the heartland of the United States during that time. This series of dry years were all associated with a multi-year La Niña event, the 22-year solar cycle, and one of the longest periods of negative-phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation on record.

Does this all sound familiar?

This should be the case since the spring and summer 2024 forecasts were largely based on the same set of anomalies. Unfortunately for this forecaster, accurate predictions are worthless. Most of the truly desperate meteorologists will turn these close predictions into a victory, but if you're wrong, you're wrong. It is still very fascinating to see how close the parallels to other years in the lunar cycle came to that of 2024.

October is not over yet, but the current drought will last at least until the 20th of this month. That will be long enough for the weather in both September and October to look very similar to 1952, when dry and warmer weather prevailed in the same two months.

One of the features that contributed to drier weather in recent weeks was the numerous tropical cyclones that developed in the Gulf of Mexico. These storms blocked moisture in the Gulf of Mexico from traveling north from the region into the United States. Some of the most famous drought years in the Midwest and Great Plains came about because the Gulf of Mexico was closed off as a source of moisture, allowing key growing areas to go from comfortably wet to too dry in a matter of weeks.

In the case of 2024, all of these changes toward drought came too late in the growing season to push commodity futures prices higher as so many producers had hoped. Low demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds in the absence of serious adverse weather in the final weeks of the moisture-sensitive part of the growing season led to a fairly pessimistic market mentality, causing prices to collapse while acreage dried up.

When it comes to weather and commodities trading, timing always matters, and while 2024 North American rainfall and temperatures line up well with the other member years in this lunar cycle, there will be no parallel fame or glory this time around close by… or will there be? Dryness in the plains delayed the emergence and establishment of wheat, while in Russia and eastern Ukraine it was too dry and too warm. There has also been a lot of talk about drought recently in Argentina and Western Australia. There was an attempt at a short-term market recovery in early October, but these drier areas were expected to ease soon, so there was no reason for market expectations to rise – at least not for now.

Incidentally, in November and December 1952, the weather became somewhat wetter in the U.S. plains, the Midwest, and the Delta, but there were periods of notable dryness. Some of the drought continued throughout the winter and into spring. The major weather change in the spring and summer of 1953 was a wet trend across Canada and the northern United States. Dry conditions continued in parts of the Midwest, but some of the supporting or parallel weather patterns may ease before we reach summer 2025.

Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. He can be reached at [email protected]. World Weather, Inc.'s forecasts and commentary on current, past and future weather conditions contained in this report represent the Company's assessment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.