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The Presidential Election Odds Just Changed: What Polls Say, Bettors Say

ByVanessa

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The Presidential Election Odds Just Changed: What Polls Say, Bettors Say

Recent polls in Pennsylvania suggest voters are divided on choosing Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. The betting markets disagree. If they're right, Pennsylvania and the presidential election could go Trump's way.

According to Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, offshore betting markets have been trending towards Trump since the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz. The main reason: an influx of bets that increased the likelihood of Trump winning Pennsylvania.

On Thursday morning, bettors gave Trump a slim chance of winning Wisconsin and Michigan for the first time since late July. As of 8 a.m. ET Tuesday, bets on Polymarket gave Trump a 56.5% chance of winning the election, his best odds since July 30. Betting on presidential elections cannot be made legally in the United States

Trump's chances in a key state just skyrocketed: So what are the former president's chances of winning the election?

How Trump's chances of winning have changed in the last two weeks

Can't see our graphics? Click here to see them.

Trump's chances of winning the presidency have increased along with his chances of winning Pennsylvania. In recent weeks, bettors on Polymarket gave Harris a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, a state with 19 electoral votes. Assuming she wins all the other states where she is favored, Harris would top Pennsylvania's 270 electoral votes.

Harris and Trump's chances of winning in each state

With just three weeks to go until November 5, Trump's chances of winning the 2024 race are also much better than in his other two elections in 2016 and 2020. When voters went to the polls in 2016, he had just a 17 percent chance to defeat Hillary Clinton, according to Betfair Exchange, the UK's largest peer-to-peer betting platform.

How well do potential voters know Harris?

Potential voters and betting markets knew much less about Trump than they did about Clinton in 2016. Things could be different this time, according to Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor who studies election results based on the predictions of betting markets.

Harris “is a relatively unknown candidate,” Crane said in a telephone interview Thursday. “She was vice president, but she doesn’t do media interviews. She's not exposed.” A “60 Minutes” interview with Harris that aired Monday night was the first in a series the campaign has since announced.

“She’s kind of the exact opposite of Trump,” Crane said, “where Trump is 100% exposed. It's almost inconceivable to think that anything could emerge that would surprise anyone about Trump. Does this help Harris or hurt Harris?”

Keeping up with the 2024 election? Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter for exclusive analysis.

According to surveys, which states are still unclear

Real Clear Politics tracks and aggregates polls across the country daily. His analysis suggests that more than 100 electoral votes in nine states remain unclear.

Bettors rate Trump's probability of winning higher than in the previous two elections

Although the bets on Trump and Harris have diverged significantly in recent days, they are a far cry from where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of winning on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange were over 70%.

The betting odds did not predict Trump's victory in 2016

As of 8 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Trump had a lead of more than 13 percentage points over Harris at Polymarket. The Betfair Exchange market showed a gap of 13 points, which the site considers too large to mention. According to Betfair's historical data, the gap between candidates remains the narrowest of Trump's three elections. On October 15, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 67% chance of winning.

At Betfair, the probability of Hillary Clinton winning on Election Day 2016 was 81%. According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866. The only other time bettors couldn't predict the winner was in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey by 8-1 odds.

Contributor: James Powel

By Vanessa

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