Winter Outlook: La Niña weak, warm for most

Winter will generally be warmer than usual across much of the United States, with a few exceptions, according to a forecast released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The overall picture: Above-average temperatures are expected from December 2024 to February 2025 from the Southwest to the Southern Plains, the eastern Great Lakes and the East Coast.

The exception to this mild winter may be the Northwest – including Washington, Oregon and Idaho – east into parts of the Northern Plains where winter temperatures may be slightly below average.

Let's take a closer look at the next three months.

December: While our outlook shown below is at least slightly warmer than usual for most of the country, December could hold some colder surprises.

At least a weak La Niña, a periodic cooling of water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected, which may have some impact on the overall weather pattern in the United States

According to Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2, past Decembers tended to be colder during weak or moderate La Niñas in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, not just the Northwest and northern Plains.

Therefore, this presents a colder risk to the forecast below as winter begins.

(15-minute details: For even more detailed weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

A warmer January appears to be a sure thing from the Rio Grande Valley to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

Again, the best chance for a colder than usual month is from the Pacific Northwest to North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

But that doesn't mean there won't be any cold outbreaks during this generally milder month.

Todd Crawford of A's AG2 pointed out that the country's record warmest winter of 2023/24 still saw a significant cold snap in mid-January. In fact, January last year was colder than average from the central and southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

(192 hours: Optimize your forecast even further with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our website Premium Pro experience.)

February: A stronger east-west or northwest-southeast temperature gradient could emerge by February.

While much of the East is likely to be warmer than usual, the Northwest is expected to be cold in February, and other places from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains could also experience more freezing than usual during the month.

According to Crawford, this general picture is what previous weak or moderate La Niñas have often produced in February.