Alabama Football vs. Tennessee Previews and Predictions

Happy Friday everyone. Alabama plays Tennessee tomorrow and Sylvester Croom spoke to the team about what it means to play for Alabama.

Great stuff. Your previews:

Bama's defense has had some holes lately, but it's still probably better than Arkansas' or Florida's. The Tide ranks sixth in three-and-out rate (43.0%) and has allowed the ninth-lowest percentage of plays that gained more than 20 yards (4.3%). If Iamaleava can't raise his level, Tennessee won't score much on Saturday.

A great Tennessee defense therefore has to be pretty big. OLB Joshua Josephs and End Tire West have been great this season, and star James Pearce Jr. has also finally started making plays in recent weeks. The Vols rank first nationally in stuff rate (32.3%) and yards per carry before contact (-0.38). The secondary wasn't as good as the defense, and of course that could be a problem against Williams and an increasingly healthy receiving corps, but if you can make Bama one-dimensional and put pressure on quarterback Jalen Milroe, you have a chance to stop that Flood.

However, Iamaleava really needs to get better. Having the least effective QB in the SEC is not a good way to reach the CFP.

Current line: Bama -3 | SP+ projection: Bama at 2.3 | FPI forecast: Bama at 1.4

Both teams have been inconsistent this season, with high points like Alabama's win over Georgia and Tennessee's over Oklahoma coupled with shocking low points in road losses. Alabama is the more explosive team and has shown it can win in a track and field game, but its defense has left a lot to be desired so far this season. Vanderbilt outplayed the Alabama defense right away and kept getting what it needed in the third period. Tennessee should have success running the ball against the Tide, but it remains questionable whether Nico Iamaleava can make enough big plays to win a game like this. He hasn't been able to do that so far this season, even though Tennessee largely hasn't been able to catch up, aside from the loss at Arkansas. In a turbulent environment, bet on Tennessee to cover in a tense situation. Pick: Tennessee +3

If Milroe leaves Neyland Stadium with his white road uniform completely stained, Alabama is in trouble. The Vols will be without linebacker Keenan Pili, the defensive play-caller, who is out for the season after suffering an injury last week. That's a big loss for Tennessee, but there's still plenty of firepower in a defense that ranks fourth nationally in points allowed (10.7) and second in yards allowed (249.8).

The Vols also haven't had an offense with as much big-play potential as Alabama. The Tide also didn't see as solid a defense after one of their most inconsistent performances of the season against the Gamecocks.

Prediction: Tennessee 21, Alabama 20

This is a real coin toss, but Tennessee is at home, so the Vols have the edge in a rock matchup.

Iamaleava's stats are concerning: 4.7 YPA under pressure, three turnover plays without a blitz, and two interceptions without conceding a goal. This vulnerability plays right into the Crimson Tide's hands, allowing them to create disruption with their front four while also putting more defenders in coverage. Although Alabama's secondary ranks 44th in EPA per pass, they could capitalize on Iamaleava's mistakes.

Expect Alabama to employ a multi-pronged strategy of generating pressure with its front four, mixing coverages to confuse Iamaleava even in clean pockets, and focusing on run defense (ranked eighth by PFF) to keep Tennessee in To force passing situations.

Overall, this matchup clearly favors Alabama's defense. Unless Iamaleava's decision-making skills and poise under pressure improve dramatically, the Tide appear well-positioned to dominate this matchup and cover the difference.

Tennessee's secondary and pass defense aren't exactly exposed, but there is a problem.

Arkansas' Taylen Green passed for 279 yards, and the combination of Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway passed for 223 yards for Florida, hitting the Vol D for the first multi-touchdown passing play of the year.

Alabama may be struggling, but it can still bomb away. Tennessee's offense will step up, but Milroe will be fantastic in an exciting game that will not overshadow anything in the SEC, including the matchup in Austin.

Alabama 34, Tennessee 30

Crawford (Alabama -1.5) — These two played an absolute classic the last time this was held at Neyland Stadium, but the squads are vastly different this time around. Tennessee's offense is no longer as explosive as it was under Hendon Hooker in 2022 and Alabama has been limping since beating Georgia. It will be extremely difficult for the loser of this game to advance to the College Football Playoff given a second loss and remaining schedules for both games. I don't trust any team here, so be careful. … Alabama 28, Tennessee 24.

Tennessee 24, Alabama 23: You can't count on Tennessee's struggling passing attack to expose the Tide's vulnerable secondary, but you can count on running back Dylan Sampson and UT's defense.

You can also count on the Tennessee audience. This isn't Georgia, where coach Kirby Smart has to ask his fans to turn up the volume.

The possibility of beating Florida and Alabama on back-to-back Saturdays should have Tennessee fans cheering as loudly as ever.

The final link is from longtime band writer John Adams of the Knoxville News Sentinel.

Everyone predicts a close event, and that's how it should be. There's a distinct possibility that Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has a breakout game at home. Of course, that possibility also existed last week when he managed 169 pass yards in an OT game against a pretty poor Florida defense.

This seems like a game Alabama should win, but they need to stop making the stupid mistakes that have cost them their lives over the last ten quarters. I just can't pick Tennessee to win, so I'm giving this game to Alabama 30-20.

Of course that's just my opinion. Vote and let us know what you think in the comments.

The key will be blocking James Pearce Jr.

The big tasks continue on Saturday with James Pearce Jr.: the defensive end from Tennessee who led the SEC in sacks a year ago and in conference play with three tackles-for-loss and 1.5 sacks in his last two games seems to be getting hotter and hotter.

Tennessee's defense hasn't generated many sacks, with 12 in six games. But it's a pass rush that has helped the SEC's fourth-best pass defense.

“I think the depth, the size, the speed, the athleticism, they're excellent and obviously they've been very productive,” Sheridan said of Tennessee's front seven.

Pearce will be the center of attention for Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett on Saturday and could be a crucial factor in quarterback Jalen Milroe's overall performance.

Finally, Kennington Smith III has a nice rivalry story for you.

2007: Alabama 41, Tennessee 17

Welcome, Coach Saban. Alabama was far from the greatest dynasty in modern history at this point. Still, Saban, John Parker Wilson's career-high 363 yards and three touchdowns, and DJ Hall's then-program record 13 catches for 185 yards led Alabama to an upset of No. 20 Tennessee and the most lopsided win in the series since 1986.

Alabama had lost 10 of 12 to Tennessee before this Saturday, but then the Tide rattled off 15 straight wins, the longest streak in series history. Tennessee obliterated Saban's perfect record with an epic 52-49 win at Neyland Stadium in 2022 that culminated in the goalposts being demolished.

Alabama hasn't been to Knoxville since, setting the stage for another exciting, high-stakes matchup. History shows that success follows the winner.

May Kalen's TSIO debut go just as well.

That's it for today. I wish you a great weekend.

Roll Tide.