Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Oscar is moving quickly, shocking computers and forecasters

Invest 94L has developed into a tropical storm Oscar in the Atlantic. Oscar is the 14th named storm of this year's hurricane season.

Yesterday it was a tropical disturbance that seemed unlikely to develop, and today it is a rapidly strengthening hurricane. No computer forecast model could have predicted the sudden development of Hurricane Oscar. Hurricane warnings were hastily issued for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Oscar is a tiny hurricane that poses a major forecasting challenge. These small storms can develop quickly, but can also dissipate just as quickly when they encounter hostile high-altitude winds. Computer forecasts are based on a grid, and important aspects of smaller storms can fall within the grid spacing.

Hurricane-force winds only extend about 6 miles from the center on the north and east sides of the circulation, so Oscar's greatest impacts will only occur in a very small area. Hurricane gusts extend over a range of about 25 miles.

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It appears that the center of Hurricane Oscar will move over or through the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon and evening. It is possible that the hurricane's small core could directly impact one or more of these islands.

The storm quickly intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, and now that it has a core, all indications are that the intensification will continue. Residents should prepare for at least a Category 2 storm.

Hurricane Oscar is expected to head toward Cuba's northeast coast before strong high-altitude winds take their toll. The weakening storm will move north and dissipate by midweek.

OSCAR enters a hurricane in the southwest Atlantic, while warnings are issued for the Bahamas and Cuba

Surprise hurricanes are extremely unusual, but do occur occasionally. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 comes to mind; It strengthened from a tropical depression to a hurricane in one day off the coast of Upper Texas, setting a record for rapid development and intensification.

It is likely that Oscar will beat Humberto's record by many hours if the data is carefully analyzed. Humberto was also a small storm that took advantage of an atmosphere very conducive to development.

Hurricane Oscar Satellite

Hurricane Oscar poses no threat to the United States

According to statistics guru Dr. According to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Oscar is the tenth hurricane of the eventful 2024 season and the tenth time in the record books that a season has produced so many hurricanes. Of course, there is no guarantee that another hurricane will not develop this season.

Tropical Storm Nadine made landfall in Belize late this morning, but is still spreading tropical storm conditions across the northern half of the country and Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Heavy rains can cause flooding and possible landslides in southern Mexico and surrounding parts of Central America. Nadine's system is expected to clear tomorrow but the threat of rain will continue.

Looking forward, the tropics are expected to calm down after these systems die out – at least until Halloween. November storms aren't impossible, so we'll see.