Tesla shares rise on optimistic sales forecasts and upcoming launch of a robotaxis

Tesla (TSLA) stock is rising as investors await the company's long-awaited robotaxi debut and third-quarter sales numbers.

Shares of the electric vehicle company led by Elon Musk rose nearly 2% on Tuesday morning, after rising 5% on Monday. After months of delays, Tesla will finally unveil its self-driving taxis on October 10. The company will also announce its third-quarter deliveries in early October. Wall Street analysts are forecasting a 6% year-over-year increase in sales to about 460,000 electric vehicles.

Barclays analyst Daniel Levy said in a bullish note to investors on Monday that he expects Tesla deliveries to rise above that consensus estimate. Levy forecasts Tesla will deliver about 470,000 electric vehicles, up 8% from a year ago. He cited a rise in sales in China, although domestic rival BYD (1211.HK) lags far behind.

“Given the positive data reported so far in the quarter, particularly in China, we believe Tesla's revenue performance is well understood and investors expect an improved result,” Levy wrote on Monday.

In a separate interview with Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, Levy said he expects Tesla to report slightly higher profit margins in its upcoming quarterly report. Still, Levy is sticking to his view on Tesla stock, noting that his team is “dampening our expectations” amid rising tariffs that will impact the electric vehicle market.

Tesla has struggled with a number of headline-grabbing issues over the past year, from major safety concerns and mass recalls to factory closures, layoffs and increased competition in China. Three senior Tesla executives resigned in the spring. But after a dismal first-quarter earnings report, Tesla subsequently performed better than expected thanks to price cuts. Nearly 440,000 vehicles were delivered in the second quarter, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations.

The company's stock has made a second significant turnaround in 2024. Monday's earnings left the stock relatively flat for the year. Levy said “Robotaxi Day” will likely reinforce that uptrend.

Tesla is banking on success in a market where others face hurdles. Like his vision of space travel and brain chips, Musk's promise of a world of self-driving cars seems far away. Other attempts to introduce autonomous taxis into city traffic have been chaotic – even disastrous.

Alphabet-owned Waymo (GOOG) was investigated by the federal government in the spring after crashes and traffic violations, and in June the company recalled its fleet of nearly 700 self-driving cars. But Waymo is back at it, recently announcing an expanded partnership with Uber that will bring its taxis to more cities.

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Cruise, a company owned by General Motors (GM), will also be back on the road after it had to cease operations last year when a self-driving taxi hit a pedestrian and dragged her 20 feet – this time with human drivers.

“Most people have no idea yet how mind-blowingly good Tesla FSD will be,” Musk said in late March in a post on X, formerly Twitter, referring to Tesla's “Full Self-Drive” mode. “It will be so superhuman that in the future it will seem strange that people drive cars even when they are exhausted and drunk!”

After being repeatedly postponed, Tesla's Robotaxi Day on October 10 could now show whether Tesla is up to the task of steering public opinion towards the future envisioned by Musk.

“It’s a very long time frame to really monetize the value of this FSD,” Levy told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.

Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.

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