As storm disinformation circulates, meteorologists face threats

Yale Environment 360: Meteorologists have been harassed over climate change issues for years. Is what we've seen recently a continuation of that or are we in uncharted territory here?

James Marshall Shepherd: Climate researchers have been dealing with climate trolls, skeptics and deniers for decades; I think it's an extension of that. The tone and level of harassment increased significantly during the last two hurricanes. Well, some of it, I think, just has to do with the fact that we're in an election year. I remember some similar claims in 2012 about Superstorm Sandy, that the government created it to disrupt the election. The difference is that the harassment in the past occurred in a peripheral setting. This last episode was a little more mainstream. This is worrying.

e360: What reactions do you get when you tell people you're a meteorologist?

shepherd: You often hear, “Oh, climate change is natural,” or “It's just a joke.” You're making that up to get funding.” The irony is that people used to come up to me and say, “You climate scientists are full of this. “Humanity cannot change our weather and climate.” But now some of these critics promote conspiracy theories that claim we have controlled hurricanes or created storms, and then attack us when we refute them with real science.

e360: There's not much logic behind a lot of this.

shepherd: A conspiracy theory makes it easier for them to understand and reconcile things they already believe or want to believe. There's a whole psychology behind it. There is still a group of people who simply don't want to buy climate change.

e360: What have you heard from your colleagues about the emotional impact of dealing with these storms and the bullying that comes with them?

shepherd: Leading up to Helene and Milton I had this pit in my stomach. They predict or analyze data that shows that a severe storm will kill people or destroy their lives or property. That alone takes a mental toll. But then there is harassment and skepticism. James Spann, a very well-known television meteorologist in Birmingham, Alabama, said, “You work in a high-stress situation for several weeks on two to three hours of sleep, and then you have to deal with the threats that come along that will knock you down.” “

e360: Have you seen meteorologists who just burned out?

shepherd: Some promising young meteorologists are leaving our field simply because of the sheer volume of things they have to do now, as opposed to before where they might just stand in front of a screen and announce the weather every day. They do social media, they have to file environmental reports, a lot of things that they probably just didn't expect.

There are also climate scientists who have suffered the most from threats or harassment and left the field. But I think that's part of the intent of the harassment, the trolling. They want to silence us.

e360: People become scientists to engage in research that expands human knowledge. Many people don't want to get involved in politics and yet they get drawn into it.

shepherd: I don't think we need this. I don't get involved in politics. I testify before Congress and advise the White House, things like that. But I don't see all of this as fundamentally political. I think others are trying to make it political. My philosophy has long been to simply state the facts from my position as an expert.

e360: They distinguish between misinformation that is unintentional and disinformation that is intentional.

shepherd: Yes. False information endangers lives. We have seen this when people do not heed warnings or do not threaten emergency services. FEMA had to change some of its operations because its people were receiving threats.

e360: You mentioned that you are active on social media. Why is this important to you?

shepherd: The majority of people now get their weather information through apps and social media rather than tuning in to a TV news channel. It's much harder to figure out what's credible in these formats. I think, scientists like me, if we don't engage, the void we leave will be filled by people with agendas. We need a vaccine against the contagious information that is out there.

e360: There are people who think that the federal government and the Biden administration are directing hurricanes at the red states.

shepherd: We don't have the technology for this. I am an expert in weather and climate: I say this unequivocally because I know it to be true. But there is now a kind of push in society where specialist knowledge is no longer trusted.

e360: How well did meteorologists do in their predictions for Hurricanes Helene and Milton?

Shepherd: With Helene, we knew there would be excessive rainfall in the mountains and Georgia. But some people don't get it because they have no standards for something they haven't experienced. These were extremely unusual events that we will see more of. People said, “Oh yeah, it’s just a hurricane.” There will be a lot of rain.” But we said there would be “excessive rainfall of 20 to 30 inches” in the coming days. That's exactly what happened.

The second hurricane, Milton, saw an excessive fixation (in the media) on the storm category. The Saffir-Simpson scale (which assigns numbers to the strength of hurricanes) is a wind scale. Often the media focuses on it and the public tends to fixate on it. Many (meteorologists) advocated for stopping focusing so much on the category and wind because, as studies have consistently shown, the deadliest aspect of a hurricane is water – be it the storm surge or inland freshwater flooding through Rainfalls.

e360: You've talked a lot about what you call the “weather gap,” the difference between the way extreme weather events affect poor people and the way they affect wealthier people. The rich often live in safer places and can afford to protect themselves.

shepherd: It's much broader than income. This extreme weather-climate divide really affects every vulnerable community – be it poor communities, communities of color, the very young or the elderly – these communities are disproportionately affected. They (often) have less resilience or adaptability. You're right, there were people in the same regions who were equally exposed and affected, but they had the opportunity to get in their car, maybe drive to Atlanta and stay in a hotel for a week.

e360: Forecasts are generally becoming more accurate, but we still don't know everything about hurricane intensity, do we?

shepherd: The route forecasts have improved significantly. We still have a ways to go when it comes to intensity forecasting, and we know why. Track predictions are more likely to be driven by the large atmospheric control conditions that the models can capture. But the intensity predictions are determined by the heat content of the ocean, by the convection that occurs within the clouds. These are things that we often don't have directly available data about to incorporate into the model. The energies associated with hurricane intensification are related to things that are not controlled or explained by large-scale models.

e360: Climate change is messing up the maps so quickly that it's difficult to keep track.

Shepherd: That's why I feel very reassured when I say that these are climate change hurricanes. We know that hurricanes happen naturally. They are scheduled to take place in September and October. But the Gulf of Mexico was unusually warm. Storms are becoming increasingly violent and are rapidly intensifying. I believe with Milton it went from Category 1 to Category 5 in less than 24 hours. This explosive development is actually a fingerprint of climate change.

It's disheartening to see that it's happening almost exactly as we said it would. What is even more worrying is that we are still at the beginning. If we do not act and reduce CO2 emissions, we will see an even greater increase.