About mistakes that probably won't bite you again

Scheduling a bullpen game in the World Series is, to some extent, out of Dave Roberts' control. More than half of his useful starting pitchers are on the IL, so he has to do something. Game 4 isn't the perfect spot for Johnny Wholestaff — the way MLB's playoff format works, it's the only game in the series that isn't adjacent to an off day — but it's also the only spot in a four-man rotation , which is guaranteed to only appear once.

The Dodgers manager was lucky, however, because when Game 4 began, his team was already 3-0 in the series. No team has ever overcome such a deficit in World Series play, and only once in baseball history has a team come back 3-0 in a best-of-seven series. We all knew that from the start. I was a little surprised to learn that history is even less kind to the clubs that determine their opponents in the first three games of a Fall Classic: Before this season, teams that had a chance to win a World Series had won a game 4 21 times in 24 attempts.

So Roberts entrusted Game 4 not only to his bullpen, but also to his low-leverage guys: Ben Casparius, Daniel Hudson, Landon Knack and Brent Honeywell. In fact, his team lost.

I'm about to question Roberts here, so I'd like to say two things upfront. First, I think it's worth noting that I think Doc had a great postseason, even if he gets picked on for his tactical acumen in the postseason – an occupational hazard when you get as much done in October as Roberts. In the last two rounds he was the superior button pusher.

Second, since he made a mistake in Game 4, it almost certainly won't affect him again. I make predictions but no guarantees; I've seen enough baseball to know better. It's not certain whether the Dodgers will take home the big chunk of metal sometime between now and Saturday, but it would take a stunning historical error to stop them. The point is that Roberts could have used a position player on the mound in Game 4 and the Dodgers would have remained overwhelming favorites in that series.

Still, let's play along with Roberts' pitching usage.

Casparius was obviously the right choice to start the game as the best of three options – alongside Knack and Honeywell – that could provide length for Roberts. And there is a not particularly outlandish universe in which Casparius legitimately outperforms Yankees starter Luis Gil. An ice-cold lineup against an unknown rookie with a sharp break ball? Stranger things happen every day.

Unfortunately, Casparius was pretty bad. In two innings, he managed three runs, managed only two swings and misses, and allowed four batted balls traveling at 95 miles per hour or more. The Connecticut native was fortunate to only allow a single run. Even luckier, two other boys from Nutmeg State had an even more embarrassing night. (CS Lewis believed that hell was a state of separation from God, but if there had been Zyn and DraftKings in Oxford in the 1930s, he would have written about those guys instead.)

But after all that, Casparius left the game with the lead because Freddie Freeman ate his Wheaties.

There is a time and a place to try Coup de grace In a game you don't expect to win. But a 2-1 bullpen lead in the third inning is not. Hudson hasn't shown much leverage this postseason, but has been effective, allowing a single run in five appearances. It would have taken Roberts an inning or two to get far enough into the game to justify using his best relievers. Anthony Volpe's grand slam wasn't what the Dodgers imagined. As much as Hudson struggled early in the inning, Roberts could have warmed up reinforcements to maintain his slim lead before Volpe capitalized with a home run. Still, it's still early in the game to abandon the existing strategy of preserving the upper arms for Game 5. Roberts could have been more aggressive here, but the damage was quickly done.

At that point, the Dodgers had lost multiple runs with six innings to go. Overall, I think it's a bad idea to use heavily indebted relievers in a situation like this, especially when the game in question doesn't necessarily have to be won. To the extent that managers made the difference in the NLCS, Roberts' refusal to do just that gave him a major advantage over Carlos Mendoza.

But Knack, who replaced Hudson in the fourth and was supposed to be a white flag, kept the Dodgers in the game. I've long been fascinated by the cleanup guy who soaks up innings to save his teammates in a playoff loss. Like a scapegoat in the original sense of the word. Knack became the 33rd reliever in the Wild Card era to pitch four or more innings in a postseason loss without being blamed for the loss. Three of those cases came from Roberts' Dodgers teams, and they represent the range of appearances featured on this list.

An example of this is Clayton Kershaw's four scoreless innings in relief in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. It's an elimination game, we're already losing, so screw it, let's just bring in our ace on a short break to stay close. The other came last week when Honeywell entered Game 5 of the NLCS with Jack Flaherty cranked and the Dodgers already down six runs in the fourth. Honeywell didn't keep it close, but he got Roberts to within a minute of the end of the tunnel. The Dodgers won the Series with a fully rested bullpen in their next attempt.

Knack was supposed to throw a Honeywell-style mass relief stint, but he held the Yankees to a single run over four innings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers fumbled by two runs against Gil, forcing Yankee manager Aaron Boone to collapse into his high-leverage arms as early as the fifth inning.

When Knack came out of the game, it was the end of the eighth quarter. The Dodgers trailed by just two runs, and Luke Weaver – already four outs and 21 pitches into his stint – was on the verge of attempting the longest World Series save by a Yankees pitcher since 1961.

At this point, the Dodgers were no longer in a bullpen game. They were within two runs – a fumble and a blast – from sending the World Series winner to extra inning against a tiring reliever. The Dodgers found themselves, against all odds, in a game they seemed resigned to losing.

In this situation, they were still the overwhelming underdogs; Even with Anthony Rizzo out in the bottom of the eighth, the leverage index was just 0.23 and the Yankees' win probability was 93.5%. A one-in-15 chance of winning the World Series probably isn't worth burning Michael Kopech or Blake Treinen. But it's probably worth dusting off someone like Ryan Brasier just to see what happens when he puts up a zero.

By this point, Boone had already used his best relievers, two of them for multi-inning stints. Roberts had used three pitchers who would have been less involved in a potential Game 7 than any season-ticket Jamoke near the right field foul line. And the Dodgers were still there.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, some would say. I say it's important to recognize a gift horse when he trots up to you with a ribbon around his neck and asks for a carrot. Roberts stuck to his plan and when asked about it after the game, he said being down 6-4 in the eighth was not the right time to deviate from it.

So Honeywell came and within five batters the Yankees led 10-4. By the time Honeywell finished his excruciating 50-pitch inning, the Dodgers' chances of winning the game had dropped from one in 15 to one in 1,000.

It probably won't matter. With a rested bullpen and three closing options, the Dodgers should finish off the Yankees sooner rather than later. But why put off until tomorrow what you could have done today?