Advantage Gauff or Muchova? Plea for the Beijing finalists

Nothing final happens in the opening sentence, as Coco Gauff likes to say.

Beijing: Results | Order of play | Pulls

“I always grew up with the philosophy that the second set is the most important set,” Gauff told reporters at the China Open on Saturday. “Either you win the match with this set or you stay in the match with this set.

“Of course I want to win the first set. It might make my life easier. But yes, I would rather improve my level in the second set than suffer a fall after the first.”

That “it’s just an appetizer” approach served her well in Beijing this week. Gauff won 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 against Paula Badosa in the semifinals – it was the third game in a row in which she lost the first set and came back to win.

She reached the final on Sunday against Karolina Muchova, who defeated Zheng Qinwen 6:3, 6:4. Unlike Gauff, Muchova sailed. She only lost one set, and that was her series victory over US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka.

“I've said it in the past, I didn't know what this year was going to look like, whether I was going to play, whether I wasn't going to play, what my level was going to be,” said Muchova, who missed 10 months of action after the US Open 2023 due to injury. “To get to the final here is just so nice. Such a nice feeling.”

Her playing history is limited to a three-week, high-stakes stretch last summer in which Gauff won twice – in the Cincinnati final and the US Open semifinals.

“Everyone thinks the final is so close,” said Gauff. “But you’re not. You’re so far away.”

WTA insiders Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber advocate for the two finalists.

The case for Gauff

Last year, Gauff came to Beijing for her tournament debut at the China Open and was full of confidence. She had just won three of her last four tournaments, including her first WTA 500 in Washington DC, her first WTA 1000 in Cincinnati and her first Grand Slam title at the US Open. She reached the semi-finals on her first attempt.

This year was the other side of the coin. Her struggling summer, culminating in a US Open title defense that ended in the round of 16, saw her slip out of the top five of the PIF WTA Rankings for the first time in a year.

As a result, Gauff went out of her way to make it clear that her expectations in Beijing were low. After separating from Brad Gilbert, she was still in the early stages of a new coaching constellation and added Matt Daly to her team. In some interviews she called it a “week of training” and in others “an early pre-season.”

And yet, despite her doubts and sometimes difficult level, Gauff's determination has secured her a place in her first final since – if you can believe it – January. Beijing was further proof that Gauff can always be relied on to be competitive.

Reaching a WTA 1000 final without your best stuff? This is the stuff that builds trust.

“I'm happy to be in the final,” Gauff said after surviving a set and a loss to beat Paula Badosa in the semifinals. “Like I said, I didn’t expect that.

“Was this week my best tennis? In a few moments, yes. I think today I reached a level where I played my best tennis. Obviously this isn't the case for the whole game. That’s tennis, that’s life.”

Once she has a few wins, Gauff is almost automatically in the final. At just 20 years old, she has an outstanding record of 7-1 in the finals of the Hologic WTA Tour. This only defeat came in the final of Roland Garros 2022 against the inevitable on clay Iga Swiatek.

On Sunday, Gauff will attempt to become the youngest Beijing champion since Caroline Wozniacki in 2010. The numbers are on their side. She is 4-0 in sets against Muchova and beat the crafty Czech in a WTA 1000 final. That happened last summer in Cincinnati, where Gauff won 6-3, 6-4.

–Courtney Nguyen

The Mukhova case

Think for a moment about the hard work Muchova has already done. On Friday she defeated world No. 2 Sabalenka, the only woman to win two Grand Slam singles titles this year.

On Saturday, she beat No. 7 Zheng Qinwen, who played again in front of a sellout crowd at the China National Tennis Center. Muchova didn't let the 15,000 spectators or Zheng into the game.

There is nothing to suggest that she won't do her job against Gauff and defeat her third top 10 opponent in a row. She may be the only player to do so at the China Open in two decades.

This came after she underwent career-threatening wrist surgery and questioned whether she would ever reach her elite level as a player again.

“I think she’s one of the best players on the tour,” Gauff said. “She just had a couple of unfortunate breaks with injuries. But it's good to see her healthy again. This will be a tough duel. She’s dangerous.”

In fact, she is, as her clear victory over Zheng proves.

Muchova served flawlessly and won 42 out of 57 points. She won all 10 of her service games and saved the only break opportunity Zheng had. Muchova has won 49 of her 55 service games in these two weeks.

At the same time, she won 17 of Zheng's 28 second serve points. Muchova was aggressive, sometimes advancing five to six feet inside the baseline and receiving the ball exceptionally early. This is a strategy that will be effective against Gauff.

Muchova loves this surface; She has won 12 of 14 matches on hard courts this year. Their creativity and spontaneous decisions should keep them going in the game against Gauff, one of the best defenders on the tour.

“I’m glad I’ve been here for so long,” Muchova said in her on-court interview.

And now she'll be there for another day – and a chance at a second career title, her first since Seoul 2019.

–Greg Garber