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AL wildcard hunt: Tigers and 3 other teams fight for 2 spots

ByVanessa

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AL wildcard hunt: Tigers and 3 other teams fight for 2 spots

While the results of Friday night's games were disappointing and potentially costly for the Detroit Tigers, they did provide some clarity on the state of eight remaining regular season games.

In the American League, four teams compete for the last two wildcard spots.

The Kansas City Royals (82-72) and Minnesota Twins (81-73) would make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Tigers (80-74) and Seattle Mariners (79-75) are still in the race.

The Red Sox (76-78) and Tampa Bay Rays (76-78) are not officially out of the race yet, but their chances are so slim that we no longer consider them for the playoffs.

WILD CARD STANDINGS (last two places)

Team Wins losses Games behind it
City 82 72 +1
Minnesota 81 73
TIGER 80 74 1
Seattle 79 75 2

(The complete ranking can be found here)

The Tigers were crushed by the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night, and then it was an agonizing wait to see what would happen to the Twins, who were in a 1-1 tie with the Red Sox.

The Red Sox missed several chances to win in overtime and the Twins ultimately triumphed 4-2 after 12 innings.

The Twins won a game against the Tigers and also gained ground on the Royals, who lost 2-1 to the San Francisco Giants, their fifth consecutive loss.

Within about a week, the Royals were no longer safe in the playoffs, but potentially vulnerable.

The Mariners, who beat the Rangers on Friday night, have the smallest margin for error of the four teams but are still in the lead.

CURRENT PLAYOFF CHANCES (last two wildcard spots)

team PECOTA Fangraphs
City 82.4 87
Minnesota 73.6 79.1
TIGER 35.1 27
Seattle 9.1 7.2

Note: The totals are over 200 percent because the Mariners still have a slim chance of winning their division.

The Twins have another advantage: They won the season series against the Royals, Tigers and Mariners, so they would win every tiebreaker in every scenario.

The Tigers lost the season series to the Twins and Royals, but were able to beat Seattle in a tiebreaker, meaning the Tigers could sneak into the playoffs in a couple of improbable three-way matchups.

Most of the playoff games have already been decided. The only uncertainty concerns the Royals and Mariners, who ended their season series tied at 3-3.

Here are all 11 possible tiebreaker scenarios with the four teams still in the race.

Tiebreaker between two teams:

Twins about Royals

Royals vs Tigers

Gemini over Tiger

Twins beat Mariners

Tigers beat Mariners

Royals likely against Mariners

The Royals and Mariners are tied in the season series, but the Royals' 33-19 intra-divisional record is currently better than the Mariners' 26-18. The Mariners have eight intra-divisional games left, but they would need to win them all.

Tiebreaker for three teams:

Twins over Royals and Tigers; Royals over Tigers

Twins over Royals and Mariners; Royals probably over Mariners (see above)

Royals likely against Tigers and Mariners; Tigers against Mariners

Twins over Tigers and Mariners; Tigers over Mariners

Tiebreaker for four teams:

Twins over Royals, Tigers and Mariners; Royals probably over Tigers and Mariners; Tigers over Mariners.

By Vanessa

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