Analysis: The pendulum of IDF attacks swings up and down

The Israeli army's pendulum between increasing and decreasing intensity of attacks on Hezbollah was dizzying.

From last week until Monday there was a clear linear escalation policy.

Dozens of attacks turned into hundreds, and the number of hundreds rose to 1,300 on Monday, making Monday the most devastating day of fighting with Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

But on Tuesday, Israeli forces slowed their advance.

While there were still hundreds of attacks, the attack rate appeared to have dropped by five-fold or more.

Similarly, Israeli forces attacked Hezbollah early Wednesday morning, but referred to dozens of attacks rather than hundreds, let alone 1,300 in one day.

Smoke billows over southern Lebanon, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, seen from Tyre in southern Lebanon, September 24, 2024. (Source: REUTERS/AZIZ TAHER)

In addition, the Israeli forces' attacks appeared to have been concentrated mainly in southern Lebanon, which may be less aggressive than Monday's attacks, which covered the lower and more strategically important (an area important to Hezbollah and its arsenal of longer-range and more powerful weapons) Bekaa Valley.

New air strikes in Lebanon

Suddenly, around 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the Israeli military announced that they would launch another series of massive air strikes not only on southern Lebanon but also on the Bekaa Valley.

We will only be able to determine more precisely how massive the attacks are after a few minutes or hours.

But after Hezbollah upped the ante by firing on Tel Aviv and firing repeatedly south of Haifa at Zichron Ya'akov and other central Israeli areas near Tel Aviv, it is unclear whether this will be seen as something new that could persuade Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire separate from the war in Gaza.

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If Israel is doing this to buy time for secret diplomatic contacts, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is signaling more flexibility behind the scenes to end the conflict on the northern border, then the shuttle strategy might make sense after all.

If Israel is simply creating the conditions for a much larger and imminent attack that could change Nasrallah's calculations, then even a very short pause might make sense.

But if the ups and downs of the attacks are merely a sign that the government is unsure how to proceed, then the price of its indecision is that a full third of the country, from Haifa northwards, has now been under quarantine for five days with no end in sight, and that other areas of the country could fall into this state.

Not to mention the 60,000 evacuees from the northern border who have been stuck for a year, the Israeli hostages trapped in the Gaza Strip, and the further loss of Israel's legitimacy worldwide until Jerusalem ends the entire conflict.

Analysis: The pendulum of IDF attacks swings up and down

ByVanessa

New air strikes in Lebanon

By Vanessa

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