ATP Shanghai best bets including Medvedev vs Arnaldi

ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/16 Final

Monfils – Humbert: October 7th, 2024 Time to be announced
H2H: 1-3

Gaël Monfils has won three of his last five games. Last week in Beijing, as predicted, Monfils lost in straight sets to Medvedev in the first round of the tournament. Here in Shanghai, Monfils defeated Dzumhur in close sets. Monfils then defeated Baez in three close sets in the second round of the tournament. Gael is on the verge of falling out of the top 50 in the rankings, so he will be hoping for a solid result in Tokyo this week. This time last year Gael was playing in Stockholm, where he won the tournament, beating Kotov in the final.

Ugo Humbert has won four of his last five games. Last week Humbert reached the final in Tokyo, where he lost to Fils in three close sets. Humbert had a match point in the second set and was close to winning the title. Here in Shanghai, Ugo won his opening match against Cazaux in simple sets. Despite being a top 20 player, Ugo has a poor record at the Masters level. Last year Humbert reached the quarterfinals in Shanghai.

The best bet

According to the bookmakers, Humbert is the slight favorite in this match and we agree. Gael struggled against Baez yesterday and looked exhausted by the end of the game. On the other hand, Humbert dominated in his opening match here in Shanghai and almost won the title in Tokyo last week.

Apart from that, Humbert covering the game's handicap is a value bet.

Value Bet/best odds: Ugo Humbert -2.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365

Arnaldi – Medvedev: October 7th, 2024 Time to be announced
H2H: 0-3

Matteo Arnaldi has won three of his last five games. Last week in Tokyo, Arnaldi lost his opening match against Tommy Paul in straight sets, as we predicted. Here in Shanghai, Matteo defeated Svajda in his opening match. Arnaldi lost the first set 6-7 but stayed calm and turned the game around with ease. Last year in Shanghai, Arnaldi reached the third round, where he lost to JJ Wolf in three tight sets.

Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five games. Last week in Beijing, Medvedev reached the semi-finals where, as predicted, he lost in straight sets to Alcaraz. Daniil has been struggling with his form recently, but his recent result in Beijing could give him some confidence back. Here in Beijing, Medvedev defeated Seyboth Wild in close straight sets in his opening match. Last year in Shanghai, Medvedev reached the third round, where he lost to Korda in straight sets.

The best bet

According to bookmakers, Medvedev is the favorite in this duel. Arnaldi never had success on fast pitches like this. On the other hand, this is Medvedev's favorite part of the season. We believe Daniil will dominate from the start and win this game easily.

Apart from that, Medvedev's coverage of the game's handicap is a value bet.

Value Bet/best odds: Daniil Medvedev -4.5 games handicap @2.10 @bet365

Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports