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Best case scenario for Auburn at Georgia

ByVanessa

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Best case scenario for Auburn at Georgia

The trends don't favor Auburn's trip to Georgia on Saturday.

It will come to Athens having lost seven straight games to its old-school rival. Gus Malzahn was hoping for a raise the last time the Tigers tamed the Bulldogs, to understand the context. The current deficit against power conference schools is five games.

Ending that winning streak would mean pulling off the upset as a 23-point underdog against a proud team dissatisfied with last Saturday's result in Tuscaloosa.

And considering Georgia is on a 26-game home winning streak and hasn't lost a consecutive game since 2016 – Kirby Smart's first season as coach – the odds are high for the 2:30 p.m. CT game at Sanford Stadium.

RELATED: Hugh Freeze outsmarts us all

Auburn (2-3, 0-2 SEC) is a 23-point underdog a year after its 14.5-point upset at home against then-No. 1 Georgia. It led the Bulldogs well into the third quarter and was tied until the end, when a 40-yard touchdown catch by Brock Bowers gave Georgia the 27-20 victory.

So what will it take for Auburn to scare Georgia or even do the unthinkable?

Best case for Auburn: No Freebees, Georgia has a hangover

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze tells you his team is spot on. A few games here and there and this 2-3 team could be off to a 5-0 start in a big rivalry game in front of the nation's spectators.

If you back up this argument with a few numbers, you refute it forcefully. On the bright side, Auburn is the No. 23 overall offense in the country, averaging 466.0 yards per game. The Tigers are a No. 5 home run threat in plays over 20 yards (34) and No. 1 in plays over 40 yards (12).

And the negative: Auburn is No. 133 among 134 FBS teams in turnovers (15) and ranks last in turnover margin (-11).

It's not as easy as eliminating 15 turnovers to create an undefeated season, but it's also hard to remember one inconsequential giveaway in the three Tiger losses. All nine interceptions came in those losses – the most memorable being Pick 6 last week, which was the difference in a 27-21 loss to Oklahoma.

Auburn needs to stop this.

The handouts explain how Auburn moves from 23rd in yards per game to 88th in points per drive (1.85), according to bcftoys.com.

It's an offense that will face a Georgia defense that didn't allow a single touchdown in its first three games before giving up 41 points to Alabama last week.

Auburn, with all due respect, does not have the dynamic quarterback play that has troubled the Bulldogs to this extent, so they will have to play mistake-free football to have any chance.

The good news for Auburn is that Georgia is not a turnover machine. There have been just two interceptions in four games, one of which came on a tipped pass last week at Alabama.

Worst case scenario: status quo

Georgia is a more talented and better coached football team.

If it responds as most expect, this shouldn't be an entertaining college football game, and this Auburn series will add yet another game to the start of the open week.

Score Prediction: Georgia 44, Auburn 9

This has all the makings of a defeat as the preseason No. 1 team plays furiously after a narrow loss. Auburn will make some big plays, but doesn't have four quarters left to keep up with Georgia. Not yet.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or further Facebook.

By Vanessa

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