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Bet on the odds in favor of Donald Trump. Here's why

ByVanessa

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Bet on the odds in favor of Donald Trump. Here's why

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The betting odds for the 2024 presidential election are trending towards former President Donald Trump. Offshore bettors continue to increase this probability because they predict that Trump has a better chance of winning the battleground states.

As of 7 a.m. ET Thursday, Trump's probability of winning on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, topped 61% for the first time since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Betfair Exchange, the UK's largest peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted on its temperature gauge on Thursday morning that Trump was likely to win. Betting on the presidential election is not legal in the USA

Trump's chances of winning are rising, according to battleground polls

Can't see our graphics? Click here to see them.

So are bettors seeing something that pollsters aren't? Polymarket warned in its weekly “Oracle” newsletter on Tuesday that big differences in betting markets do not equate to big margins in the polls:

“While Trump's lead is the largest since the summer, its significance cannot be overstated. A market lead of 55 to 45 predicted is nowhere near as strong as a five-point lead in the polls,” the newsletter says. “Small movements in the polls are escalated into large fluctuations in the ratings.”

Trump and Harris' probability of winning each state

Bettors rate Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous elections

Although the bets on Trump and Harris have diverged significantly in recent days, they are a far cry from where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of winning on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange were over 70%.

As of 7 a.m. ET Thursday, Trump had a 22 percentage point lead over Harris at Polymarket. The Betfair Exchange market had a gap of 20 points. According to Betfair's historical data, the gap between candidates remains the narrowest of Trump's three elections. On October 17, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 64% chance of winning and a lead of 28 percentage points.

How accurate were the voting rates in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866 – in 2016, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign only to lose, and in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman 8 won -to-1 chance of defeating Republican Thomas Dewey.

Other indicators of the president's race

  • Allan Lichtman, the historian known for accurately predicting nine of the last ten presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year's White House election. He predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win. In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a series of thirteen “keys” or true-false questions that assess the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.
  • Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the White House in 2024. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls puts Harris ahead of Trump by 1.7 percentage points. The polling averages from the battleground states are even closer. For example, Trump is ahead of Harris by 1.1 percentage points in Arizona and Harris is ahead of Trump by 0.3 percentage points in Wisconsin.

When is Election Day 2024?

Election day is Tuesday, November 5th.

When are polls open in Delaware?

Polls in Delaware open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m

How do you find your polling place in Delaware?

You can check the Delaware Department of Elections website, enter your address and find your polling place

What do I need to vote in Delaware?

At the polling station, an employee will ask you for proof of identity. Acceptable forms of identification include:

  • Valid photo ID
  • Copy of electricity bill
  • Bank statement
  • Government check, paycheck, or other government document showing your address

Is there early voting in Delaware?

Yes, early voting for the general election begins October 25th and continues through November 3rd. Early voting sites are open from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. on the first five days of early voting and from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on the last five days of early voting. All registered voters can vote early.

Early voting sites in Delaware

New Castle County

  • Appoquinimink State Service Center, 122 Silver Lake Road, Middletown
  • Christina Crossing, 501 S. Walnut St., Suite 13, Wilmington (tentative)
  • Claymont Community Center, 3301 Green St., Claymont
  • Department of Elections Warehouse, 220 Lisa Drive, New Castle
  • Hudson State Service Center, 501 Ogletown Road, Newark
  • Police Athletic League, 3707 N. Market St, Wilmington

Kent County

  • BPOE #1903 Elks Lodge, 200 S. Saulsbury Road, Dover
  • Crossroad Christian Church, 4867 N. Dupont Highway, Dover
  • Frederica Senior Center, 216 Market St., Frederica
  • Harrington Parks & Recreation, 114 E Liberty St., Harrington

Sussex County

  • American Legion Post 28 Millsboro, 31768 Legion Road, Millsboro
  • Department of Elections Warehouse, Georgetown, 542 S. Bedford St., Georgetown
  • Department of Elections Warehouse, Seaford, 200 Allen St., Seaford
  • Ellendale Fire Hall, 302 Main St., Ellendale
  • Laurel Fire Hall, 205 W. 10th St., Laurel
  • Margaret H. Rollins Community Center, 101 Adams Ave., Lewes
  • Millville Community Center, 32517 Dukes Drive, Millville
  • Roxana Fire Hall, 35943 Zion Church Road, Frankford

Keeping up with the 2024 election? Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter.

By Vanessa

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