Big 12 Chaos Meter: Preseason favorites fight to avoid 0-2 hole, Colorado visits UCF

Last week saw a regular-season end, Hail Mary, double-digit fourth-quarter comeback and a sharp rivalry loss. What awaits the Big 12 this week?

This week's Big 12 Chaos Meter: 3/5🤯🤯🤯

The pressure is on for several teams with declining results (Baylor, Kansas, TCU), while one surprise team has emerged (BYU). And two of the preseason conference favorites are trying to avoid an 0-2 start to Big 12 play.

Image of the college football playoffs

The Big 12 champion will likely earn an automatic spot as one of the top five ranked conference champions. Will the league accommodate more than one team? A check-in on the conference race:

✅Keep steady: Utah, Iowa State, UCF

📈Trending: BYU, Texas Tech, Colorado, Cincinnati

📉Trend down: Kansas State, Oklahoma State

📝Work to be done: Arizona State, West Virginia, Arizona

⚠️Danger area: Kansas, TCU, Baylor

🚩Forget it: Houston

Game of the week

Let's rank the Big 12's top matchups in Week 5 based on possible absurdity, but first, a look at this week's big game.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM; Click here for live odds. All kick-off times are Easter and Saturday unless otherwise stated.)

No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-1 Big 12) at No. 23 Kansas State (3-1, 0-1), noon, ESPN

This isn't an elimination game, but it has the feel of one. The Cowboys and Wildcats were among the top three teams in the Big 12 preseason poll, but the loser here will be two games out of first place with seven games to go. It is difficult, although not impossible, to get out of this hole.

Oklahoma State, which just lost to Utah without Cam Rising, needs to get preseason Heisman Trophy contender Ollie Gordon II going. He has never rushed for 50 yards against an FBS opponent this season. Kansas State couldn't find the end zone and allowed 21 points on turnovers and a punt return touchdown in a drubbing at BYU last week.

The Cowboys have won four of the last five in this series, but that loss came in 2022 in Manhattan, Kansas, 48-0.

Potential for chaos: 4/5🤯🤯🤯🤯

Line: Kansas State -4.5

High potential for chaos

Colorado (3-1, 1-0) at UCF (3-0, 1-0), 3:30 p.m., Fox

The Big Noon Kickoff game – which isn't actually taking place at noon this week – features a team that would never throw the ball if it didn't have to, and one that seems allergic to running the ball. Gus Malzahn's UCF is averaging more rushing yards per game (375) than Colorado has totaled on the ground in four games (275).

Both teams delivered heartstoppers. UCF erased a 21-point second-half deficit to beat TCU before an idle week, and Shedeur Sanders threw a Hail Mary to tie the game en route to an eventual overtime win over Baylor.

The bounce house should jump in this case.

Potential for chaos: 5/5🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

Line: UCF-14

No. 22 BYU (4-0, 1-0) at Baylor (2-2, 0-1), noon, FS1

Kalani Sitake tried to tell everyone a week ago that this year's 3-0 start was different than last year (when the Cougars finished 5-7). If you weren't already convinced, it should have been enough to kick Kansas State's ass. The oddsmakers will have to do more convincing, however, as BYU travels to Waco, Texas, as underdogs.

The Bears were better, but last week's heartbreaker in Colorado was a massive gut punch. Can they recover? This game has big implications not only for Baylor's stay in the conference race, but also for Dave Aranda in a torrid year.

Potential for chaos: 4/5🤯🤯🤯🤯

Line: Baylor -3.5

Medium chaos potential

TCU (2-2, 0-1) at Kansas (1-3, 0-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN+

Two teams in desperate need of positivity. The Jayhawks have lost three straight, most recently surrendering an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to West Virginia in the final five minutes.

TCU was weakened by its crosstown rival SMU in more ways than one. The Ponies lost 66 points to the Frogs. Head coach Sonny Dykes was sacked. And after TCU complained about the network on social media the day before the game, not one but two postgame videos were edited out in response, one from CW and the other from SMU. Maybe just a little karma for dropping out of a rivalry game that's more than a century old.

And there's bad news for TCU: In this case, it's moved from linear network television to a streaming service. A win for either program may not be enough to erase the stink of the first quarter of the season.

Potential for chaos: 3/5🤯🤯🤯

Line: Kansas -2.5

Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0) at Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0), 8 p.m., ESPN2

Can we call this the “Tommy Tuberville Bowl” in honor of the time he walked out of a tech recruiting dinner to take the job at Cincy?

With two of the most productive offenses in the conference – Texas Tech is second in the league in yards per game and Cincinnati is third – this offense should deliver fireworks. It's also a good old-fashioned Texas high school quarterback battle between Texas Tech's Behren Morton (Eastland High) and Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby (Lake Dallas High), who have combined for 24 touchdowns.

Potential for chaos: 3/5🤯🤯🤯

Line: Texas Tech -2.5

Low potential for chaos

Arizona (2-1, 0-0) at No. 10 Utah (4-0, 1-0), 10:15 p.m., ESPN

Let's call it Big 12 After Dark? Or ex-Pac-12 After Dark? We have to fix it.

This will be the Big 12's first home game at Rice-Eccles, and Arizona has the tall task of getting a win where Utah is 92-26 in the Kyle Whittingham era. The Wildcats' last appearance, a disappointing 31-7 loss at Kansas State, was a wake-up call. Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan face one of the Big 12's best defenses: Utah allows just 4.3 yards per play and a third-down conversion rate of just 23.3 percent.

Could Rising play this game? He was warming up last week before Whittingham ruled him out 25 minutes before kick-off. But Isaac Wilson showed last week that he is capable, especially with the help of Micah Bernard, Brant Kuithe and Dorian Singer.

Potential for chaos: 2/5🤯🤯

Line: Utah -11.5

No. 18 Iowa State (3-0, 0-0) at Houston (1-3, 0-1), 7 p.m., FS1

The Cyclones have won five straight road games in the Big 12 and have a great chance to extend that streak to six against a Houston team that was dominated 34-0 in Cincinnati last week. A win would make Matt Campbell the all-time leader at Iowa State with 57 wins. A win would also give the Cyclones their first 4-0 start since 2000.

Potential for chaos: 1/5🤯

Line: Iowa State -14

(Photo by Travis Hunter from Colorado: Andrew Wevers / Getty Images)