Big 12 Chaos Meter: Spirits are high at BYU, but the Cougars are underdogs at UCF

We are officially in the second half of the season and the Big 12 race is picking up steam. What awaits you in week 9?

This week's Big 12 Chaos Meter: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯

Even though the league's top-ranked team, No. 10 Iowa State, is out, there's still no shortage of intrigue. Six of the seven games involve single-digit scoring margins and the other is an in-state rivalry game.

Big 12 title race and College Football Playoff picture

Which teams are contenders for the Big 12 Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff? Let's take a look at the race:

🔥 Title contender: BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State

📈 The next stage: Cincinnati, Colorado, Texas Tech, Arizona State

↔️ Middle of the pack: TCU, West Virginia

🎱 Behind the 8-Ball: Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Kansas, UCF, Utah

🚩 Forget it: Oklahoma State

Complete Big 12 rankings

Let's take a look at this weekend's Big 12 matchups, ranked by potential for chaos. But first, the game of the week.

(All points spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kick-off times are Easter and Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

Game of the week

No. 11 BYU (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) at UCF (3-4, 1-3), 3:30 p.m., ESPN

The mood couldn't be better in Provo as BYU pulled out a miraculous last-second victory over Oklahoma State to remain undefeated.

Last night we had Fri pic.twitter.com/UL6WzrkC8I

– The ROC (@byuROC) October 19, 2024

Coach Kalani Sitake deserves a lot of credit for the disciplined, confident ballclub he has put together. On offense, Jake Retzlaff is never a dull experience at quarterback, running and slinging with a reckless abandon that has mostly worked for him. Defensively, this is arguably the best unit in the league. She allows a league-low 4.7 yards per play with a plus-six turnover margin and a trio of linebackers who fly around and make plays.

The Cougars will need everything on their long road trip to play against a modest but dangerous UCF team. The Knights had Iowa State on the ropes Saturday, rushing for 354 yards and overwhelming the Cyclones twice. Running back RJ Harvey is a defense's worst nightmare, and new starting quarterback Jacurri Brown is lightning fast and fits well in Gus Malzahn's offense. With an idle week and the impending holy war, BYU can't be caught looking past this week.

Believe it or not, the Knights are the favorites here, not the undefeated Cougars.

Potential for chaos: 5/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: UCF -2.5

High potential for chaos

Kansas (2-5, 1-3) at No. 16 Kansas State (6-1, 3-1), 8 p.m., ESPN2

The Jayhawks finally got an FBS win against Houston last week, and it looked like the Kansas we expected this season. Jalon Daniels was electric, throwing for four total touchdowns, Devin Neal ran for over 100, and Cobee Bryant had three interceptions. This team is still nowhere near where they want or thought they would be in 2024, but perhaps a blowout win can provide the impetus for the Sunflower Showdown.

Kansas State is the better team and is among the Big 12's top class, with quarterback Avery Johnson making progress as a passer every week, including a career-high 298 yards in an easy win over West Virginia last week. The Wildcats still have a long way to go and have won a record 15 straight in this rivalry, including a 5-0 mark under coach Chris Klieman. But in a failed season for the Jayhawks, they would love nothing more than to play spoilsport in Manhattan, which would add some potential for chaos to this season. Never overlook an intrastate rivalry.

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Kansas State -10

Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1) at Colorado (5-2, 3-1), 10:15 p.m., ESPN

Consider this the “Big 12 matchup not to worry about,” she said. Both teams are just one game away from bowl eligibility, have won three of their first four conference games and are surprising participants in the Big 12 title race. We all thought there would be a tie for the conference championship this season, but few (if any) expected these two teams to be there at the end of October.

Colorado's luster has waned a bit compared to last year from an attention perspective, but as David Ubben wrote this week, this Buffs team is better, more competitive, winning games with improved defense and the offensive line blocking just enough to get to the quarterback Shedeur Sanders is thriving.

Also, don't sleep on the other team (or quarterback) in this game. The Bearcats appear to have improved significantly in year two under Scott Satterfield, and QB Brendan Sorsby is a big reason why. The Indiana transfer ranks third in the Big 12 in passing yards (1,928), just behind Sanders (2,268), and Cincinnati's offense is third in the league with 6.6 yards per play. Expect a star-studded edition of #Big12AfterDark as both teams fight for bowling eligibility.

Potential for chaos: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Colorado -5.5

Medium chaos potential

Texas Tech (5-2, 3-1) at TCU (4-3, 2-2), 3:30 p.m., Fox

Did you know that these teams play for a saddle? For an in-state rivalry between Cowtown and West Texas, it might be the most fitting piece of hardware in the sport.

Remember, these teams are playing for exactly that: the Saddle Trophy. (Was a tradition between teams in the 1960s).

Coincidentally, the halftime score looks straight out of the 60s: TCU 7, Texas Tech 3. pic.twitter.com/SvJ5zEd7Xi

– Sam Khan Jr. (@skhanjr) October 12, 2018

The Red Raiders' Big 12 chances were marred by a stunning 59-35 home loss to Baylor last week. Tech's defense continues to be a problem; According to TruMedia, the Raiders have given up 68 explosive plays this season, the second-most in the Big 12. It was also the third time in nine games that Tech has given up more than 50 points since the 2023 regular season finale. Also Poor special teams was a problem, and now the Red Raiders have a lot to fix to stay in contention.

TCU, which hit rock bottom a few weeks ago after a home loss to Houston, picked up a much-needed but ugly road win at Utah. The defensive performance has improved significantly, but the offense still needs work – it went scoreless in its last five drives against the Utes and averaged just 5.3 yards per play.

Potential for chaos: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: TCU -6.5

Low potential for chaos

West Virginia (3-4, 2-2) at Arizona (3-4, 1-3), 7 p.m., FS1

This was a disappointing year for the Wildcats and Mountaineers, who were each picked in the top half of the league's preseason poll (Arizona finished fifth, West Virginia seventh). And both have slipped, with the Mountaineers suffering two straight losses – double-digit home losses to Iowa State and Kansas State – and Arizona losing three straight to Texas Tech, BYU and Colorado.

On paper, the quarterback duel between Garrett Greene and Noah Fifita seems like a recipe for fun, but neither has been stellar this year. Both rank in the bottom half of the league in passing efficiency and have combined to throw 18 interceptions. Greene's status is uncertain after he was injured against Kansas State. Nicco Marchiol would step in if he can't go.

These new conference participants will be meeting for the first time. A win would give the winner some much-needed positivity.

Potential for chaos: 2/5 🤯🤯
Line: Arizona -3.5

Utah (4-3, 1-3) at Houston (2-5, 1-3), 7 p.m., ESPN+

This matchup between the Big 12's two least productive offenses urges fans to accept the under (the over/under is a paltry 36.5). Houston ranks last in the conference with 303 yards per game and Utah is just above the Cougars with 385.9. Their 24 points per game (Utah) and 13.7 (Houston) also rank them in the bottom two points per game (1.8 for Utah, 1.1 for Houston) and two of the three worst in the league.

Potential for chaos: 1/5 🤯
Line: Utah -3.5

Oklahoma State (3-4, 0-4) at Baylor (3-4, 1-3), 3:30 p.m., ESPN+

If you want to know how bad things have gotten for Oklahoma State — a team that was third in the preseason Big 12 poll and third in the FBS in returning production, according to ESPN — check out the point spread here. Baylor, which had won just three of its last 20 games against FBS competition before beating Texas Tech last week, is nearly a touchdown favorite. This is the first time since 2005, the first season of the Mike Gundy era, that Oklahoma State has started 0-4 in Big 12 play. It is also the Cowboys' longest conference losing streak in a single season since 2014, when they lost five straight.

The Pokes gave BYU everything they had to deal with last week, and switching to Garret Rangel at quarterback provided a spark, although he left the game with what turned out to be a season-ending collarbone injury. Alan Bowman led the way late, demonstrating his and the team's resilience, which was dwarfed by Retzlaff's last-gasp heroics. Bowman returns to the starting role against Baylor.

The Bears, who played good football at times but struggled to get going in four quarters, had their best performance of the season against Texas Tech last week in Lubbock. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson continues to play well, throwing a career-best five touchdowns last week. He's a perfect fit for coordinator Jake Spavital's offense and has the second-best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the Big 12 (14 to 3). Was last week an exception in an otherwise disastrous season for the Bears or the start of a much-needed turnaround? This week should provide at least some answers to that question.

Potential for chaos: 1/5 🤯
Line: Baylor -6.5

(Photo by Jake Retzlaff: Rob Gray / Imagn Images)