Bo Nix's performance in the Week 5 win is already astounding stat nerds

The Denver Broncos earned a big home win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5, a convincing 34-18 matchup that began with the Raiders leading 10-0. The Broncos scored 34 unanswered points to take a commanding lead against the Raiders, and a big reason for those 34 unanswered points was obviously rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

To say that the statistical analysts don't like Bo Nix would be a bit of an understatement. We've heard all season about Nix's EPA on pass attempts of more than 15 yards, his EPA per play, his expected completion percentage, or his completion percentage above expected…

There are so many valuable metrics that paint a picture of what we see on the field, and then there are numbers that tell us absolutely nothing about what we see on the field.

Believe it or not, the game we just saw from Nix, in which he scored three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and almost had a fourth touchdown (the pass to Troy Franklin), was his own worst performance of the season according to the common quarterback statistical metric called “QBR.”

QBR is not the same as quarterback rating, another complicated metric that measures a quarterback's efficiency. Frankly, QBR is the more reliable of the two most important QB metrics. At least typically. But Nix posted a QBR of 26.8 against the Las Vegas Raiders despite completing over 70 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, no picks, one rushing touchdown and no fumbles.

Again, it was Nix's lowest QBR of the entire 2024 season, including games in which he threw multiple interceptions. Are statistics broken?

Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew, who was benched after throwing two interceptions (including a pick-six), finished the game with a QBR of 46.7. That's 20 points more than Nix's QBR on the day.

There is simply no explanation for this, even considering Nix was fired three times. Minshew was sacked twice due to fewer dropbacks. Nix's quarterback rating was much higher as he threw for just 60 yards against the New York Jets.

For this reason, it's important to treat statistics – even the most seemingly advanced statistics – with a grain of salt. Often times the people compiling the stats have no idea what they are looking at in terms of what a game is supposed to be. We can all judge a game and judge whether the result is good or bad, but some of it is subjective. What we all have to trust right now is what we see with our eyes, and that is Bo Nix playing damn well.

Regardless of what his QBR might be.