California vs. Pittsburgh, Ole Miss vs. LSU Predictions: College Football Picks, Odds

Lane Kiffin has finally recruited a defense for Ole Miss.

Texas A&M transfer DT Walter Nolen has been devastating against the run.

Florida transfer DE Princely Umanmielen has 20 pressures and four sacks in five games.

Arkansas transfer LB Chris Paul Jr. is rightfully one of the top 10 linebackers in the FBS.

Many of their cross-season metrics are inflated following the failure of FCS and G5 programs.

Still, the Rebels' defense passed the eye test last week against South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to three points with 4.2 yards per play and -0.28 EPA per play (8th percentile).

They sacked LaNorris Sellers six times and Nolen recorded three times.

This is the most meaningful comparison we have for this matchup, as the same South Carolina offense that was useless against Ole Miss, in a near surprise, put up 33 points and 430 yards at over 7 yards per game against LSU's lifeless defense lost.

I have some concerns about the Ole Miss offense, which has been disappointing the last few weeks.

But Jaxson Dart managed more than 10 yards per attempt against South Carolina's top-10 secondary last week, so I trust he will shred LSU's secondary, which ranks below 100 nationally in EPA based on dropbacks allowed – and pass success rate.

Garrett Nussmeier leads a potent LSU air attack, but the Rebels are a more versatile, two-pronged football team.

They should earn a few tough stops as they overwhelm Brian Kelly's defense for 60 minutes to secure a convincing away win.

The pick: Ole Miss (-3.5).

California (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

The Panthers, who are overrated at 5-0, are facing a defeat.

They should have lost to Cincinnati in Week 2 and West Virginia in Week 3.

A late game comeback will soon fail.

Conversely, the underrated 3-2 Bears are in for a big win.

They lost to Florida State in Week 4 despite outscoring the Seminoles by nearly 130 yards.

They lost to Miami last week despite holding a 35-10 lead in the second half.

Cal's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the Bears boast a top-50 secondary in PFF's success rate allowed and coverage grades.

Betting on college football?

Pitt runs a pass-heavy offense behind Eli Holstein that should play to Cal's strengths.

While Cal has an All-ACC running back in Jaydn Ott, quarterback Fernando Mendoza is starting to find his way.

After racking up nearly 600 yards against two rock-solid secondaries over the last two weeks, Cal's offense has crept into the top 30 nationally in pass success rate.

That should be the key against a Pitt defense that ranks among the bottom 15 teams in the EPA in dropbacks allowed.

I predict the Panthers will be closer to 1.5 point favorites on Saturday, which puts us about two points ahead of the market.

Last week: 3-0. Texas A&M (F), Vanderbilt (F), Minnesota (F)
2024 season: 9-9.

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.