Can Lady Gaga and Joaquin Phoenix still get Oscar nominations for Joker 2?

Lady Gaga will likely be up for her first supporting actress Oscar for “Joker: Folie à Deux.” But how far can “Mother Monster” take a film with such abysmal reviews?

“Joker: Folie à Deux” begins with Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix) housed in Arkham Asylum, awaiting trial for his violent crimes. As he grapples with his shattered identity, Arthur finds love with fellow inmate Lee (Gaga) and begins to embrace the music that has always played in his chaotic head.

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For those who haven’t seen it, this is not “category fraud.” Gaga's role is surprisingly limited. As she brings her commanding presence to the screen, her character takes a back seat to Fleck's inner turmoil, often serving as a musical complement when the film requires it. Gaga's portrayal of Harley Quinn offers a dark, nuanced take on the iconic villain – it's a more subdued, sinister take than you might expect. It is also the film's only standout performance (along with Leigh Gill reprising his role as Gary Puddles from the first film).

This year, however, Gaga faces stiff competition from a crowded supporting cast roster that also includes other big-name musicians like Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) and Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”). Should everyone secure nominations (highly unlikely), can you imagine the Oscar ratings? But is Warner Bros. betting its “Joker” card exclusively on Gaga?

The original “Joker” (2019) divided reviews even after winning the Golden Lion in Venice. But despite the polar reception, the film received eleven Oscar nominations, including one for Best Picture, the most for any film this year. Competitors included “1917,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and eventual winner “Parasite.” With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 68% at the time (69% now), it became one of the worst-reviewed Best Picture-nominated films in Oscar history.

So what are this musical film's Oscar prospects? Currently, Joker: Folie à Deux holds a 35% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and any chances of awards attention could hinge on whether Gaga's performance is accepted.

When I surveyed the field of potential nominees (curated in this week's Oscar prediction updates), I couldn't see a film that would “drive people crazy.” There's nothing like a “Green Book” or “The Reader” to make critics go wild. Wouldn't Joker 2 fit into this category?

.Gaga has already proven to be a mainstay of awards season. In 2018, she became only the second person (after Mary J. Blige) to be nominated for both acting and songwriting in the same year for A Star Is Born. She won the Academy Award for Best Original Song for “Shallow” along with Andrew Wyatt, Anthony Rossomando and Mark Ronson. In 2021, she received nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice and BAFTAs for her role as Patrizia Reggiani in House of Gucci, but was soundly rejected by the Academy. A high-profile personality like the Grammy-winning star ensures that industry voters see the film before casting their vote. She also wrote the theme song that plays in the film (and is available for submission). It's still unclear whether Gaga will consider him

While Joker: Folie à Deux is already planned, the film features a number of respected Hollywood talent behind the camera, which could increase its chances of landing nominations. Oscar-winning composer Hildur Guðnadóttir, cinematographer Lawrence Sher, editor Jeff Groth, production designer Mark Friedberg, set designer Karen O'Hara and costume designer Arianne Phillips – all of whom were recognized for the first “Joker” – could be in their category Candidates are respective branches.

And then of course there is Phoenix. A revered figure among his fellow actors, he won his Oscar for playing the Joker in the first film and has three other nominations to his name. The Academy Awards have a long tradition of recognizing actors who undergo intense physical and emotional changes for their roles. Phoenix's performance in “Folie à Deux” is, much like his haunting turn in the original, frightening – he looks even thinner than in the last entry – and showcases his musical range. It's the kind of dedication that actors notice and love to reward. But not every time. While some transformations like Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”) win awards seasons, others – like Christian Bale in “The Machinist” – are completely snubbed. Phoenix's ability to navigate the awards landscape (and continue to avoid questions about its exit from Todd Haynes' film) will be crucial. In order for the film to be considered, it must also be successful at the box office.

What might help Phoenix is ​​that the best actor category appears to be less crowded and offers a slightly easier path to a nomination. The acting department has also been known to ignore a film's reviews in favor of its lead actor's established love interest. You can watch previously nominated actors like Cate Blanchett (another planned sequel, 2007's “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”), Denzel Washington (2017's “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”), Glenn Close (2020's “Hillbilly Elegy”) view. Stanley Tucci (2009's “The Lovely Bones”), Sean Penn (2001's “I Am Sam”) and the list goes on. This small difference could help him get past the likes of Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”) and Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”), regardless of whether the public believes his performance.” deserves it or not.

Here's an interesting statistic from the Oscars: In the 96-year history of the Oscars, 102 films received 10 or more nominations. There were only 16 of them – “Mrs. Miniver”, “Going My Way”, “Airport”, “The Godfather”, “The Godfather Part II”, “Chinatown”, “The Exorcist”, “The Sting”, “Rocky”, “Star Wars”, “Terms “. of Tenderness,” “The Crouching Tiger, the Hidden Dragon,” “Gladiator,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” “Joker” and “Dune” — have spawned direct sequels. Four of them received renewed nominations for best films, three of which are still pending, including this year's “Dune: Part Two”, “Gladiator II” and “Folie à Deux”.

When predicting the Oscars, it's important to remember that critics are not Oscar voters. Since 2018, the tastes of critics and academy voters have noticeably diverged. Films like “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Vice,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Don't Look Up” and Best Picture winner “Green Book” all received a lot of criticism from the media and reviewers but were lost up to receive major Oscar nominations. Could “Folie à Deux” be this year’s controversial candidate that “drives everyone crazy”? Only time will tell.