CFB odds, tips, best bets on Saturday

In a rematch of last January's College Football Playoff championship game, Michigan travels west this week to face Washington in the teams' first meeting since the Huskies joined the Big Ten.

A lot has changed for these teams in the last nine months, with both rosters looking very different.

The Huskies are a slim favorite for Saturday's CFP title game rematch with a consensus over/under of 41.5 points.

Let's dive in, make a prediction and make a selection for the game.

Michigan vs Washington odds

When Michigan has the ball

Last week, the Wolverines were able to pull out a home win against Minnesota despite only averaging 3.75 yards per play.

Their offense was terrible regardless of which quarterback was starting, and Alex Orji didn't provide the boost the team was hoping for; He totaled just 98 passing and rushing yards against the Gophers.

The Wolverines have relied heavily on running back Kalel Mullings, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games. That approach will likely be taken again this week, but it makes them a one-dimensional offense against a well-coached Washington defense orchestrated by Steve Belichick.

Washington's defense ranks sixth nationally in adjusted EPA/game, albeit against FPI's 81st strength schedule.

However, the Huskies only rank 89th in run defense EPA, which is concerning for this matchup. Last week, Rutgers' Kyle Monangai had 25 carries for 132 yards and a score.

Still, when the Huskies fill the box, Orji hasn't shown the ability to reward the team.

When Washington has the ball

The Huskies suffered one of their worst losses of the season against Rutgers. They finished above the 90th percentile in offensive success rate and yards per game, while their opponent finished below the 35th percentile in both measures.

However, Washington failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities as it missed three field goals and had two turnovers on downs in opponent territory.

Will Rogers got off to a solid start with 10 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. His speed, anticipation and accuracy make him the ideal candidate for Jedd Fisch's offense.

Typically, you can expect Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale to be aggressive and have a strong blitz rate, but Rogers is Pro Football Focus' fourth-highest Power Five passer against the blitz.

Washington revamped its Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line in the offseason, but the unit has held up well so far. The Huskies rank 32nd in tackles allowed and have cleared holes for Arizona transfer Jonah Coleman, who ranks fourth in the country with 37 forced missed tackles.

Michigan vs. Washington selection

Michigan, which has come away with three-point wins in its last two games, is simply not as good as its 4-1 record and No. 10 ranking.

The Wolverines rank 59th in net adjusted EPA/game, albeit against a 15th strength schedule.

Betting on college football?

Meanwhile, the Huskies are underrated here after losing to Rutgers, where they had a 72% postgame win expectation.

I support Washington to win this game and expect Washington to win outright.

Pick: Washington Moneyline (-118, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne breaks down college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.