College football odds, picks and bets week 9

Notre Dame and Navy have played 94 times since 1927.

This rivalry has always been exciting, but the stakes haven't been this high since 1978, when the undefeated Midshipmen traveled to Cleveland to take on the 15th-ranked Fighting Irish.

This time, both programs have a legitimate chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff, but it has to start with a win on Saturday at MetLife Stadium.

This isn't your grandfather's Navy offensive.

The Mids are averaging more than 44 points per game and have cracked the code when it comes to generating big plays.

In just six games, Navy has already destroyed defenses 13 times for plays of 40 yards or more.

There are two explanations for this offensive glow. The first is quarterback play.

Blake Horvath controls the offense perfectly, ranks third in QBR and leads the nation in yards per pass attempt (12.3).

The second element that contributed to Navy's explosiveness was the addition of Drew Cronic to the coaching staff.

The former head coach at Mercer revamped Navy's offense by introducing Wing-T elements to the traditional triple option.

The result was players running wild in the second and third levels of the opposing defense.

If you pick out parts of their film, Navy's passing attack has all the modern bells and whistles we've come to expect from a Chip Kelly or Steve Sarkisian offense.

You'll find a heavy dose of shotgun looks, run-pass options, screen passes to almost every position on the field, naked bootlegs, and a complex route tree for runners out of the backfield.

Cronic's philosophy revolves around the idea of ​​pre-snap movement, misdirection and dexterity to force the defense to defend the width of the field.

The end result is that the defense plays slower. Paralysis by analysis, as trainers like to say.

Notre Dame needs to prepare for this football test, and without a week off to do so, Navy will likely continue to make big plays in the air and on the ground.

When you delve into Notre Dame's defensive profile, you'll see that the Irish struggle with some running concepts that are right in Navy's wheelhouse.

The Mids excel at power and counter-attack runs, and Notre Dame is barely in the top 100 in defense.

And if the Irish commit more to stopping the run by loading up the box, then Eli Heidenreich and Navy's other pass catchers will do the damage.

Before last week, Heidenreich had broken a long play of at least 39 yards in every game this season.

The former high school wide receiver has become a Swiss Army knife for the Midshipmen and should be able to score at least one goal against the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

The reason this breakdown is so generous starts and ends with scheduling.

Navy initially held off teams like Bucknell, Temple and UAB before passing its first-semester test against Memphis with a 56-44 shootout win.

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The impression is that Notre Dame's road was much more difficult after playing Texas A&M and Louisville.

But in reality, these two teams have nearly identical schedule strengths — Notre Dame 70th, Navy 71st, according to College Football Network.

Northern Illinois narrowed the game down and used its rushing attack to upset Notre Dame in South Bend.

Despite its explosiveness, the Navy still carries it out 77.54 percent of the time, the second-highest pass rate in America.

The stage is set and the formula for Navy to torpedo Notre Dame's season is there.

Recommendation: Marine +13.5 (+105, BetMGM)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post and focuses heavily on college sports. His betting recommendations often focus on situational points, including travel, rest and altitude differences.