College football odds, picks, best bets

Alabama has played in four exciting one-score games in a row and has struggled to pull away in each contest.

Last week, the 15th-ranked Crimson Tide lost to Tennessee, leaving them little to no room for error the rest of the season. Meanwhile, No. 21 Missouri escaped with a four-point win over Auburn after trailing for most of the game and is now 6-1.

The two teams meet on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a huge SEC matchup with numerous College Football Playoff implications.

Alabama entered the game as a 13.5-point favorite and the lead has expanded to 17 points over the Crimson Tide. The total now rose to 57 points before falling to just 51.

Missouri vs Alabama odds

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers will be shorthanded on offense as quarterback Brady Cook and running back Nate Noel are questionable on the injury report.

Last week, Cook left the game against Auburn with a high ankle sprain but returned to lead Missouri to a comeback victory. If he's out, it would be Drew Pyne, who completed just 47.6% of his passes last week and averaged an atrocious 3.7 yards per attempt.

With Noel out, the Tigers will rely heavily on Marcus Carroll. The App State transfer is averaging 4.7 yards per carry while Noel is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, but he has forced 15 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.

It will be difficult for him to compete against a Crimson Tide run defense that ranks 16th in the EPA per rush allowed.

Luther Burden III is one of the most talented wide receivers in the country, but he hasn't made the same impact this year and being demoted to quarterback won't help him. He has surpassed 90 receiving yards just once this season, after doing so in eight of his 13 games last year.

The Crimson Tide secondary has been prone to giving up explosives, but the Tigers rank just 94th in yards per dropback allowed this season.

When Alabama has the ball

After showing incredible improvement in the first month of the season, Jalen Milroe has played two of the worst games of his career in the last two weeks. In those contests, he made four turnover plays with no big throws and completed just one of eight deep passes.

Alabama struggled to protect Milroe, which could be a real problem against a Tigers defense that ranks 23rd in chaos. The Tide, meanwhile, ranks 105th in chaos allowed.

It's fair to note that the opposing quarterback roster wasn't exactly elite, but Missouri ranks in the top 15 in EPA per pass and pass completion rate allowed.

Alabama will also likely struggle to run the ball consistently against a defense that ranks in the top 25 in yards per rush and tackles allowed.

The Tide surprisingly ranks just 87th in offensive success rate, despite having a talented backfield with Jam Miller and Justice Haynes as well as Milroe's rushing threat.

Missouri vs. Alabama selection

Alabama's defense was heavily criticized. However, this appears to be a good spot for Kane Wommack's group against an offense that is missing its top quarterback and running back.

The Tigers have been unconvincing offensively and it's hard to imagine Pyne having much success away from home against a still-talented defence.

In the meantime, I don't expect a flood of scoring from Alabama against a defense that has maintained strong marks across the board under first-year DC Corey Batoon.

Betting on college football?

Milroe will likely give Ryan Williams some explosive plays through the air. Still, consistent consistency won't be there behind an offensive line that appears overwhelmed against the Tigers' chaos-oriented front.

The total is already down due to Missouri's injuries, but other aspects of this game still put me under the number and I would play anything over the key number of 51.

Best Bet: Under 51.5 points (-115, ESPN BET)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne covers college football and the NFL for the New York Post. It is up 84.5 units in both sports, with an ROI of 6.27%.