College football picks for Week 7: Four underdogs to consider

In a season where unpredictability has become the norm, Week 7 of the 2024 college football season presents a tantalizing tetrad of possibilities for underdogs. As the tide turns and conference races heat up, four matchups stand out as potential surprise specials.

These games feature gritty underdogs who will defy the odds and further disrupt the college football landscape. From Sun Belt showdowns to a Big Ten clash, these events provide a compelling tale of resilience, tactical acumen and the ever-present potential of David to topple Goliath. When we delve into the analysis, it becomes clear that in college football, the “underdog” label is often just that – a label waiting to be thrown at teams waiting to prove their mettle on the national stage to be torn down.

In total: 16-13-2
Best Bets: 4-2

All lines are current at the time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET.

Old Dominion Monarchs (ML Even) at the Georgia State Panthers

Old Dominion faced a number of opponents in the first half of the season. With the 36th toughest schedule in the country, the Monarchs faced several tough matchups, including a strong South Carolina Gamecocks defense and a 4-1 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers team. Despite the difficult schedule and 1-4 record, Old Dominion's three losses were by eight points or less.

Going into Georgia State as a 1.5 point underdog should be a no-brainer. The Panthers' defense ranks 113th in defensive success rate and 103rd in EPA per rush. These weaknesses mesh well with Old Dominion's offensive strengths, particularly its running game with Aaron Young and Bryce Duke. The Panthers' poor rush defense could cause them to have difficulty getting off the field on third downs, an area where they already struggle (116th in third down conversions allowed).

Georgia State will be the least challenging defense Old Dominion has faced this season. While the numbers may not seem impressive for the Monarchs, their strong schedule puts them well prepared for this matchup. I'm betting on the underdog to win straight on the money line.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +10 at James Madison Dukes

In a Sun Belt showdown between two 4-1 teams, I'm backing the Chanticleers as 10-point underdogs, despite their unfavorable history in this matchup. Coastal Carolina has been outscored 103-21 by James Madison over the last two years, which likely explains the wide spread between these competitive teams.

This election is as much a fade for James Madison as it is for Coastal support. The Dukes are coming off a loss to UL Monroe. Although the Dukes outscored ULM 399-257 in total offense, they only reached the end zone twice and struggled on fourth downs, converting just one of five attempts. More concerning is James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett III's performance under pressure; When pressured, he completed 0-for-9 passes, compared to 20-for-38 with a clean pocket. When under pressure, Barnett is now 3-for-19 this season. Notably, Monroe's pass rush ranks 109th in the nation, according to PFF. The Chanticleers have more pressures, sacks and quarterback hits than ULM this season, suggesting they could exploit this weakness.

Offensively, Coastal Carolina has shown it has the ability to put up points. The Chanticleers have averaged 38 points this season with a balanced attack – 241 passing yards and 197 rushing yards per game. Coastal Carolina could challenge James Madison's defense as the Chanticleers were extremely efficient inside the red zone and ranked 27th in touchdowns scored. That efficiency could help them maximize their scoring opportunities in Week 7 and keep pace with James Madison.

Although the Dukes are the favorites, the Chanticleers have the potential to keep the game within the 10-point range, especially if they can capitalize on their offensive strengths and put pressure on the quarterbacks.

Colorado Buffaloes +4.5 vs. 18. Kansas State Wildcats

Colorado +5.5 was my first bet of the week, but with the line now at +4.5 it's no longer my favorite play. Nonetheless, Colorado's offensive firepower with Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy contender Travis Hunter, as well as the team's defensive playmaking abilities, remain compelling factors.

An under-the-radar strength that could carry Colorado past Kansas State is its third-down efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Buffaloes convert 44.62% of their third downs on offense and hold their opponents to just 34.67%. In contrast, the Wildcats convert 38.7% and allow a 35.7% conversion rate.

These third-period efficiency differences, often overlooked in headline stats, could be crucial to Colorado's ability to dictate the pace of the game and potentially upset Kansas State. It demonstrates both offensive execution and defensive prowess in critical situations and can potentially become the deciding factor in what is expected to be a closely contested duel.

Best bet in Week 7: Washington Huskies (+3, +120 ML) at Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa is 4-1 this season, thanks in part to an improved offense but also to a declining defense. In 2023, Iowa's defense was among the elite, ranking first in fewest yards allowed per play at 3.9. By mid-2024, Iowa has fallen to 59th, giving up 5.5 yards per play and struggling to prevent explosive plays.

In just four FBS games, Iowa has already given up more 50-plus yard plays (four) than it has in all 14 games of the 2023 season (two), three of them against non-conference opponents Iowa State and Troy. That exceeds the total from Iowa's nonconference slates for the 2021, 2022 and 2023 regular seasons combined.

Iowa safety Quinn Schulte attributed those big plays to “poor communication on the back end and poor technique and fundamentals.” But it's clear that the loss of All-American defenseman Cooper DeJean, a second-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024, has also affected his performance.

Washington will look to take advantage of Iowa's defensive decline, as the Huskies rank fifth in the FBS with 111 plays of 10 yards or more in six games, according to ESPN Research. Washington also has 32 plays of 20 yards or more, ranking 17th in the FBS. Their offense remains strong despite the overhaul of the 2023 season.

Fifth-year quarterback Will Rogers leads Washington's offense with his short-to-intermediate pass accuracy (71.65%) and quick release. Under Jedd Fisch's system, Rogers threw for 1,625 yards and 12 touchdowns. Wide receiver Denzel Boston leads the Big Ten and is second in the FBS with eight touchdown receptions.

The Huskies also boast an explosive running game led by Jonah Coleman. At 1.70 m tall and weighing 100 kg, Coleman is difficult to manage. He leads FBS with 24 carries of more than 10 yards, four more than early Heisman Trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty.

Although Iowa is known for its strong defense and home-court advantage, the Huskies' balanced and explosive offense gives them a chance to defeat the Hawkeyes. I recommend considering both the points and money lines, as this seems to be a scenario where the wrong team is favored.