College football picks, odds, best bets

The Missouri Tigers were one of the surprises of the 2023 season.

Mizzou went 11-2, picked up wins over Tennessee, Kansas State, Florida and Kentucky and then defeated Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.

It was a godsend for the Tigers, who spent much of the last decade wandering in the depths of college football.

The downside to a magical season is that it raises expectations for the next one.

But that didn't seem to be a problem for the Tigers as they looked to return many of their best players and bolstered their roster in the transfer portal.

All of this led to Missouri becoming a trendy sleeper in both the SEC and the College Football Playoff.

The Tigers were looking forward to the challenge from the start, defeating Murray State and Buffalo by a combined score of 89-0, but as their schedule became more difficult, the trend began to deteriorate.

Mizzou eked out a 27-21 win over Boston College in Columbia and then needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt, but the warning signs were there for the Tigers and it was no surprise to see them knocked off the field in one game by Texas A&M were played 41-10 drubbing last weekend.

You might think that a date with UMass would be the perfect spot for Mizzou – and maybe it is – but it's also not a situation where you'd want to put a number like that on.

Missouri vs UMass odds

First of all, it's just a weird schedule.

The Tigers were demoralized last weekend in front of nearly 100,000 spectators at Kyle Field and now must travel to Amherst, Massachusetts, to play in front of perhaps 5,000 fans in a non-conference game between games with Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama and Oklahoma.

But it's not just the schedule that makes Missouri unattractive as a four-point favorite. Simply put, the Tigers just aren't playing that well this season.

Mizzou's offense ranks 68th nationally in yards per play and is 78th (tied with UMass!) in long plays from scrimmage (10+ yards), despite the Tigers completely steamrolling their first two opponents.

Things aren't much better for Missouri on defense, where they rank 74th in receiving yards per game (again, tied with UMass!).

Committing to UMass is never easy, but it looks like this program is slowly turning things around.

The Minutemen only won three games total from 2019 to 2022, but they went 3-9 last year and should at least repeat that record in 2024.

UMass has won just one of its first five contests, but Miami (Ohio) went to overtime and was tied in the fourth quarter on the road against Northern Illinois last weekend.

Betting on college football?

Much of the credit for UMass's minor resurgence goes to quarterback Taisun Phommachanh, who had stints at Clemson and Georgia Tech before joining the Minutemen last year.

Phommachanh is a capable playmaker and should be able to ask this suspect Missouri defense enough questions to give UMass a real chance to cover that big number.

There aren't many people rushing to the window to bet on UMass on Saturday afternoon, but often those are the teams that bring you the most joy as you sit back for another wonderful day of college football action.

The Bet: UMass +27.5 (-114, FanDuel)

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