Could Tropical Storm Patty develop in the Caribbean Sea after Halloween?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted a new area in the southern Caribbean Sea to watch for tropical development.

The chances of development next week have risen to the mid-range, but the FOX Forecast Center expects those chances could rise even further as the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE FINAL WEEKS OF THE 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

An extensive low pressure area is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of this week. This would coincide with the return of the Central American cyclone that helped produce Hurricanes Helene and Milton and, more recently, Tropical Storm Nadine.

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“Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast over the southwest and south-central Caribbean Sea,” the NHC wrote in its latest Outlook.

What is the Central American Vortex?

Most of the time, these storms pose no threat to the U.S., but occasionally a late-season tropical system can move in from the Caribbean and hit Florida or deliver a fleeting blow to the East Coast.

“A northward direction cannot be ruled out, although a weak system meandering through the Caribbean appears about as likely,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “In any case, we will monitor developments throughout the week.”

The next storm to be named in the Atlantic basin – which includes the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico – will be called Patty.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, the tropics are expected to remain calm as we enter the final days of October and approach early November.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

November 30 marks the last day of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

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