Democratic insiders fear Harris' influence over the Rust Belt blue wall is waning… and the same goes for the election

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Democratic insiders fear that Vice President Kamala Harris' influence on the so-called “blue wall” and with it the elections could weaken.

Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden entered the White House by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but three people with knowledge of the Harris campaign's strategy told NBC News that recent discussions have focused on the possibility of Michigan or Wisconsin could land in the first place President Donald Trump's victory column.

If Harris doesn't win both Wisconsin and Michigan, she will have to secure one or two other swing states to clinch the presidency, even if she wins Pennsylvania.

A Harris official told NBC that Michigan was the campaign's biggest concern — and Harris had made several trips to the state in recent days.

But campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt told the media, “We are absolutely competing to win Michigan.”

“We believe we will win Michigan,” she added, saying she expects Harris to win Wisconsin as well and that she sees no signs that support for the vice president is declining.

A few weeks ago, aides to the vice president said that an alternative path to victory could be winning Nevada and North Carolina if Trump secured Pennsylvania.

Four people with knowledge of the campaign's operations told NBC that North Carolina is still a target of the campaign, but they are far less confident of a victory in the Tar Heel state.

“Of all seven (states), this one seems to be disappearing a little bit,” one official said.

The sources said Hurricane Helene and the widespread destruction and disinformation about the federal response could help Trump in the state.

One person noted that the state's gubernatorial election has favored Democrats after several scandals involving Republican candidate Mark Robinson, who is trailing Democratic candidate Josh Stein in polls. The person said this has resulted in voters becoming less invested in the overall political scene.

After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Democrats' map expanded to include states he won in 2020 but were thought to have lost before November. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and the blue wall states are all in play now. These states will determine who moves into the White House.

But the initial excitement surrounding the Harris campaign has turned into a historically close race.

“I don’t see any blue wall trail, sunbelt trail, or southern trail. I see seven states that are as close to each other as you can get, all decided locally by distance,” Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign’s battleground director, said recently, according to NBC.

He added: “And so we have built an operation that can win close races locally when we expect it to. And frankly, one of the seven states has as good a chance as any of becoming a tipping point.”

Obama won the blue wall states in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton lost them to Trump in 2016 before Biden won them again in 2020.

Since 1988, when Democrat Michael Dukakis lost Michigan and Pennsylvania but won Wisconsin, the blue wall states have voted the same in every election.

The director of electoral strategy for the 1988, 2000 and 2004 Democratic candidates, Tad Devine, told NBC that Harris has a small advantage in the blue wall states because he won them with Biden in 2020.

“These three, according to the blue wall states, almost always stay together, but this year it's an extraordinarily close race. When you're so close, the state can easily go one way or the other. It could happen this year,” he said.

He added: “I think it's more likely that they will do what they have done, cycle after cycle.” They will go together in one direction or the other. They are historically linked to one another in their voting behavior.”

Matt Baretto, a Democratic pollster, told the medium that Harris has the advantage in all three blue wall states, but added: “We know the election will be close.” In each of those states it will be 1 or 2 be percent.”

“She attracts huge crowds and a huge volunteer base… She seems to be in a strong position. (But) there is still a lot of work to be done,” he said.