Donald Trump's chances increase when predicting important elections

Donald Trump's election prospects in 2024 have improved significantly, according to a major new forecast.

The EconomistThe latest election forecast shows Trump has a one in two chance of winning the Electoral College in November and is expected to win 264 Electoral College votes. Last week he had a 2 in 5 chance of winning the election and was projected to receive 257 Electoral College votes.

Kamala Harris is also projected to have a 1-in-2 chance of winning the election and is expected to win 274 Electoral College votes, down from this time last week when she was projected to win 281 Electoral College votes.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Several polls in key swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, have also moved in Trump's favor.

InsiderAdvantage surveyed 800 likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia from September 29-30. The results showed Trump had a one-point lead over Harris in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, while both were tied in Georgia at 48 percent. Specifically, Trump led Harris 49 to 48 percent in Arizona and Nevada and 50 to 49 percent in North Carolina. The polls had a margin of error between 3 and 3.7 points.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac University surveyed 942 likely voters in Georgia and 953 in North Carolina from Sept. 25 to 29, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 points. In Georgia, Trump had a 6 percent lead with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Harris' 44 percent and 3 percent for the other candidates. In North Carolina, the race was closer: Trump got 49 percent, Harris got 47 percent and 2 percent supported other candidates.

Additionally, The Washington Post surveyed 1,001 likely voters in North Carolina during the same period and found that Trump was ahead at 50 percent, ahead of Harris at 48 percent, although the result was within the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Emerson College Polling polls in Arizona and North Carolina also showed Trump with a slight lead, although both were within margins of error – 3.2 points in Arizona and 3.3 in North Carolina. In Arizona, Trump had 50 percent support compared to Harris's 47 percent, while in North Carolina he led 49 percent to 48 percent. Both surveys were conducted September 27-28.

In more positive news for Harris, a Napolitan News poll showed her three points ahead of Trump in the key battleground state of Michigan, with 50 percent of the vote versus 47 percent for Trump. That poll, conducted between Sept. 24 and Sept. 27 of 789 likely voters, had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the battleground states to win this year, while Trump would need 51. If Harris won the 2nd District in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, she would have enough votes to secure victory.

FiveThirtyEight's prediction shows her winning Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which would give her the victory. Harris leads by one to three points in all four states, according to poll trackers at FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver. However, FiveThirtyEight's tracker shows that Harris' lead has decreased in every swing state since September, except Nevada, where it has increased, and North Carolina, where polls have remained largely stable.

Meanwhile, both trackers show Trump leading by one to two points in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.

But while Harris may win the popular vote in four swing states as well as the national popular vote, the Electoral College is still a mystery, according to Silver.

“As of Thursday, our forecast is that Kamala Harris is a 3-1 favorite in the popular vote — but the Electoral College is still essentially a tie. That's because the model indicates there is a 20 percent chance of Harris winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral College, but the chance of the same thing happening to Donald Trump is just 0.3 percent,” he wrote last week in his newsletter.

FiveThirtyEight's model currently shows Harris is projected to win the popular vote and the Electoral College by 282 votes to Trump's 256 votes.